China and America talk of co-operating on climate. It will be hard
中美將很難談論氣候合作
Asking China to show leadership cuts two ways 要求中國展現領導力是雙面刃
FEBRUARY 13, 2021
FOR THE first decades of global wrangling about climate change, China’s foot-dragging caused alarm. Its self-interested approach to climate action—once summarised by a Beijing-based diplomat as seeking “maximum credit for the minimum effort”—frustrated governments that were ready to enact costly measures. Worse, China’s blame-shifting ways gave cover to politicians clinging to climate denial and inaction in America and elsewhere.
在全球氣候變遷爭論的最初幾十年，中國的拖延引發擔憂。中國氣候行動採取自私自利的做法----某位駐北京外交官一語概括為「以最小努力謀取最大功勞」----使各國政府在氣餒之餘，已準備採取代價高昂的措施。更糟的是，中國推卸責任的方式提供擋箭牌，給美國等地堅持否認氣候變遷、毫無作為的政治人物。
北京當局外交官在一次總結中，尋求最低限度的努力來獲取最大信譽，自私的方法使氣候行動受到挫敗，因為各國政府已準備好採取耗費不貲的措施。更糟的是，中國推卸責任的方式，包庇了那些堅持否認氣候變化和美國及各地不作為的政治人物。
Soon, the most disruptive force in global climate politics may be China’s ambition. Its economy is being readied for a low-carbon world sooner than many expected. Its companies are under orders to develop world-beating clean-energy technologies, including by aggressively pushing foreign firms to share them. China says it wants to re-engage with America on climate matters.
很快地，全球氣候政治中最具破壞力的可能是中國的野心，該國經濟為低碳世界做好準備比許多人預期更快。 陸企奉命開發領先全球的乾淨能源技術，做法包括強硬施壓外國公司與他們分享。企業奉命開發領先全球的乾淨能源技術，並與積極推動的外國公司分享。中國說希望在氣候問題上與美國相互共處。
Optimists see signs in China of high-level pragmatism in the return from semi-retirement of Xie Zhenhua. He is a well-connected climate negotiator who brokered the burden-sharing agreements between China and the Obama administration that made possible the Paris climate accords in 2015. Mr Xie, China’s new climate envoy, has known his American counterpart, John Kerry, for years. Gloomier sorts worry about the distrust and disdain shown by other Chinese officials and scholars who call America a jealous, declining power, bent on containing a rising China. Talks on such subjects as climate cannot prosper when bilateral relations are bad, said a foreign-ministry spokesman, after Mr Kerry promised that he would not trade away American criticisms of Chinese trade or human-rights abuses for climate-related concessions. Chinese co-operation is not like “flowers that can bloom in a greenhouse despite winter chill”, the spokesman sniffed.
在解振華從半退休狀態復出後，樂觀者看到中國高度實用主義的跡象。他是一位人脈廣泛的氣候談判代表，與現任美國氣象特使凱瑞（John Kerry）相識多年。解振華促成中國與歐巴馬政府間的分擔協議，使2015年的巴黎氣候協定成為可能。悲觀者擔憂其他中國官員和學者所表現出的不信任和蔑視，他們稱美國為嫉妒者、衰落的強權，一心想遏制崛起的中國。凱瑞保證不會為了促使中國做出氣候相關讓步，而拿美國對中國貿易或侵犯人權的批評當交換條件。外交部發言人隨後說，雙邊關係惡化時，氣候相關話題的談判熱絡不起來。美國對中國貿易或侵犯人權有所批評，凱瑞保證他不會被拿此跟氣候變遷做交易。外交部發言人說，在雙邊關係惡化時，關於氣候等問題的談話無法熱絡。他嗅到，中國的合作不像是「能在寒冬中盛開的溫室花朵」。
China’s ambitions are disruptive because they are newly credible. They are credible, not because it has been converted to selfless acts of sacrifice, but precisely the opposite. To Communist Party leaders, greenery increasingly aligns with their economic and political interests. China, a populous country that is cruelly lacking in clean water and arable farmland, and which hates having to rely so heavily on imported energy, has a selfish interest in embracing what President Xi Jinping calls “ecological civilisation”. Though the Chinese public is not very focused on climate change, citizens care deeply about clean air and water. They stage frequent demonstrations against pollution. In the words of a European diplomat, Mr Xi is convinced that “ecology is key to China’s renaissance and is part of the social contract between the Communist Party and the people.” China also wants to enhance its global reputation, the diplomat adds: “China cannot be Number One, which is of course its aspiration, without being a climate leader.”
中國的野心具有破壞性，因為現在已變得可信。因為它們是無庸置疑的。他的可信度不是因為已轉變成無私的犧牲行為，而是恰恰相反。對中共領導人來說，綠化愈來愈符合他們的政經利益。在中國這個人口稠密的國家，一直嚴重缺乏清潔的水和可耕的農田，又不願過度依賴進口能源，中國出於自利，對中共主席習近平所說的「生態文明」敞開雙臂。儘管中國公眾不太關注氣候變遷，但公民卻非常關心乾淨的空氣和水。他們經常舉行示威遊行反對汙染。套用歐洲外交官的話，習近平深信「生態是中國復興的關鍵，是共產黨和人民之間社會契約的一部分。」這位外交官補充，中國也想提高在全球的聲譽：「中國若無法成為氣候領導者，就不可能稱霸全球，中國當然有此抱負。」
Last September, in a speech to the UN General Assembly, Mr Xi unexpectedly committed his country to carbon neutrality by 2060. That pledge to offset or capture all carbon dioxide emitted in China would require most fossil fuels to vanish from an economy that currently consumes more than half the coal burned worldwide. In December Mr Xi tweaked existing targets for the year 2030 to make them a bit more ambitious and cover such areas as fossil-fuel use, forest cover, and wind and solar installations. In a rare public humiliation, environmental inspectors reporting to China’s leaders recently accused officials at the National Energy Administration of a “deviation in ideological understanding” for allowing too much dirty coal to be burned.
去年9月的聯合國大會，習近平意外承諾2060年要實現碳中和，誓言抵消或捕獲中國排放的所有二氧化碳，目前這個燃燒全球逾半煤炭的經濟體，將要求大多數化石燃料消失。去年12月，習近平調整2030年的現有目標，變得更具雄心壯志，並涵蓋化石燃料使用、森林覆蓋以及風能和太陽能裝置等領域。最近環境督查員向中國領導人匯報，指責國家能源局的官員「意識形態的偏差」、允許燃燒過多的髒煤，這樣的公然羞辱十分罕見。
The climate battle is not over. Fossil fuels still have powerful defenders in China. Some provinces approved fleets of new coal-fired power plants in 2020 while they still could. Chinese banks and businesses still invest in coal-powered plants overseas, from Pakistan to Africa. Still, signs may be glimpsed that China is planning for a different future. Research institutes close to Mr Xi’s inner circle, notably at Tsinghua University in Beijing, have laid out paths for the electricity sector to achieve net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide by 2050. Indications of seriousness could appear in the next five-year plan, to be unveiled in March. They could include an absolute cap on emissions, a step that China has so far refused, or a promise to advance to 2025 the date when emissions will peak. The current target for this will hardly be a stretch.
氣候戰尚未結束，化石燃料在中國仍然有強大的捍衛者。部分省在2020年趁還可這麼做時，批准一批新的燃煤電廠。中國的銀行和企業仍在投資海外燃煤電廠，從巴基斯坦到非洲皆有。儘管如此，仍有跡象顯示中國正在計劃一個不同的未來。親習圈內的研究機構，特別是北京清華大學，已經為電力部門在2050年前實現零碳排鋪路，正式的指示將出現在3月揭露的「十四五規畫」，其中可能包括絕對排放上限--中國迄今仍拒絕此措施，或者承諾將排放量達到峰值的時間提前到2025年，當前的目標並不牽強。當前的目標幾乎不費吹灰之力。
Previous high-level co-operation between China and America or the European Union, as in Paris in 2015, involved joint announcements of sweeping goals and targets, intended to prod other countries into action. In these low-trust times, such moments may prove hard to replicate. Instead, there is much talk in Beijing of confidence-building exchanges between experts. Wang Xin, who heads the research bureau of China’s central bank, cites promising areas for co-operation with America and other countries. These include joint work on important technologies such as carbon capture and storage, clean coal and hydrogen power, and on developing green financial instruments to fund such efforts. Climate co-operation is needed to tackle a threat to humanity, Mr Wang says. “In the process, it is only natural to strengthen mutual trust and improve relations.”
在此之前，中國與美國或歐盟之間的高層合作（如2015年的巴黎協定）涉及共同宣布大規模的方針及目標，用意是催促其他國家採取行動。中美或歐盟之間的高層合作（如2015年的巴黎）涉及共同宣布全面的任務及目標，以敦促其他國家採取行動。在這些信任度低的時期，這樣的時刻可能一去不復返。相反地，北京正熱烈討論藉由專家之間意見交流，建立起互信。 中國人行研究局局長王信指出，與美國和其他國家在某些領域的合作前景可期。相反地，北京有很多關於專家之間建立信任交流的討論。中國中央銀行研究局局長王信指出，與美國和其他國家合作的前景可期。其中包括在碳捕集與封存、清潔煤和氫能等重要技術上的合作，以及在開發綠色金融工具以資助相關工作。國際需要氣候合作來應付對人類的威脅。王信說： 「在過程中，加強互信和改善關係是再自然不過的事。」
Obstacles loom. Other countries are wary of helping to strengthen China’s industrial policies. In order to sell climate-related measures to voters, Mr Biden talks of creating millions of well-paid jobs by making America an export champion in clean technologies. Li Shuo of Greenpeace, an environmental group, worries about calls to action that are framed as a competition to beat China in sectors like solar or wind power, where China “is so far ahead”. Mr Li thinks that China and America may have to settle for “climate engagement” as they pursue common goals in parallel.
阻礙隱約可見。其他國家對幫助加強中國的工業政策持謹慎態度。拜登為了向選民兜售與氣候相關的措施，提到透過美國成為乾淨技術出口的霸主，來創造數百萬個高薪工作。環保組織綠色和平的李碩擔心，行動呼籲被定調成一場競爭，為的是在太陽能或風電等領域擊敗中國，但中國在這些方面「遙遙領先」。環保組織綠色和平的李碩擔心對行動的呼籲被定義成競爭，為擊敗中國「遙遙領先」的太陽能或風能等領域。他認為，中美兩國在並肩追求共同目標的同時，可能需要適應雙方「對氣候的參與」。
China is a latecomer to climate seriousness. Western powers, especially in Europe, have long pushed it to do more. Now, at least when it comes to clean technologies, China’s price for saving the world may be asking to lead the world. ■
認真因應氣候變遷，中國是後來者。西方強權，尤其是歐洲，長期以來一直催促中國要有更多作為。現在，至少就潔淨技術而論，中國拯救世界索取的代價，可能是要求領導世界。 ■
中國是導致氣候嚴重性的後來者。西方強權--尤其是歐洲--長期以來一直在催促它做更多的事情。現在，至少談到潔淨技術方面，中國拯救世界的代價可能是要求領導世界。 ■
