在垃圾堆中沮喪--新冠病毒對全球的拾荒者構成新挑戰

 

Down in the dumps 在垃圾堆中沮喪

Covid-19 has posed new challenges to the world’s waste-pickers 

新冠病毒對全球的拾荒者構成新挑戰

Those who are better organised have prospered more

組織性較佳的業者更富裕

International

Dec 19th 2020 edition

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Dec 19th 2020

KAMPALA, LUSAKA, MUMBAI, SÃO PAULO AND YANGON

At the northern edge of Lusaka, in Zambia, the 24-hectare Chunga landfill smoulders in the midday sun, its sour smoke scalding the nose and throat. Wesley Kambizi works nine-hour days on the dump with just a beanie and mismatched sneakers for protection: one slip-on, one lace-up, both caked in mud. Local authorities intermittently threaten to bar waste-pickers like him from the site. Worsening poverty in the city means both that more people are scavenging at the landfill and that fewer valuable scraps make it there in the first place.

在尚比亞盧薩卡的北部邊緣，占地24公頃的中嘉垃圾掩埋場在正午的陽光下悶燒，臭酸的煙霧灼燒著鼻子和喉嚨。坎比茲（Wesley Kambizi）在垃圾場工作了9個小時，只戴了頂小圓帽和一雙不相搭的運動鞋做防護：一隻沒鞋帶，一雙有鞋帶，兩隻都凝結著泥塊。地方當局斷斷續續揚言禁止像他這樣的拾荒者進入垃圾場。城市裡貧窮惡化，意味著一開始就進入掩埋場的值錢廢棄物減少，撿破爛的人卻更多了。

The world’s cities produce over 2bn tonnes of solid waste every year. Even before the covid-19 pandemic local governments in poor countries struggled to keep their streets clean, clearing less than half the rubbish in urban areas and around a quarter in the countryside. Informal workers, who make up around 80% of the 19m-24m workers in the waste industry, have helped plug that gap. They both haul rubbish and scour municipal dumps and public spaces for things which can be re-used or sold, normally through middlemen, to recycling companies. In India waste-pickers divert over 40m tonnes of refuse away from landfills and into recycling every year, a task that would cost municipalities 15-20% of their annual budget. In South Africa they are responsible for recovering 80-90% of packaging.

全球城市每年產生超過20億公噸的固體廢棄物，即使在新冠疫情爆發前，窮國地方政府維持街道清潔就很費力，城區垃圾清運不到一半，鄉間更只清了四分之一。. 垃圾處理業從業人員1,900萬至2,400萬人，非正式勞工約占80％，有助彌補人力缺口。 他們拖運垃圾，並且搜索市立垃圾場和公共場所，尋找可再利用或轉售之物，通常透過中間人賣給回收公司。印度拾荒者每年將超過4,000萬公噸的垃圾從掩埋場移到回收處，這項任務本可能要耗費市政府15%至20％的年度預算。在南非他們負責回收80-90％的包裝材料。

Some, like Mr Kambizi, do the job full-time; others resort to waste-picking only when times are hard. The pandemic has enlarged their ranks. Birungi Hidaya lost her job as a teacher in Kampala, the capital of Uganda, soon after the pandemic struck. Now she works the Kiteezi landfill. She turns her nose up at the other scavengers on the dump, labelling them “ignorant” and “not civilised at all”.

有些人如坎比茲做為全職，其他人只在落魄時才仰賴拾荒。疫病流行擴大了拾荒業的成員。疫情發生不久，比蘭吉（Birungi Hidaya）失去在烏干達首都康培拉的教師職位，現在Kiteezi垃圾掩埋場工作。她對其他拾荒者嗤之以鼻，稱他們「愚昧」且「毫無文明」。

The lay-offs that have come with the pandemic have seen more people like Ms Birungi eking out a living by collecting, sorting and selling rubbish. But the pandemic has also created new problems for waste-pickers.

疫情伴隨的裁員使更多的人像比蘭吉靠收集、分類和出售垃圾維生。但是疫情也為拾荒者帶來新的問題。

The first is getting to the waste. South Africa failed to classify waste-picking as an essential service during this year’s lockdowns, leaving thousands stuck at home at risk of starvation. In Accra and Kumasi, cities in Ghana, those who live off the landfills worry that local governments will use the pandemic as an excuse to decommission the dumps, something they have long aspired to do.

首先是到達垃圾場。今年封鎖期間，南非未將撿拾廢棄物歸類為必要服務，數千人困在家中挨餓。在迦納的阿克拉和庫馬西，依靠垃圾場生活的人擔心，地方政府會以疫情為藉口使垃圾場退役，這是政府渴望已久的事。

Panicked citizens make matters worse. In Yangon, Myanmar’s commercial capital, Thiha used to make 500,000 kyat ($370) every month as an independent waste-collector in a working-class area. When a second wave of covid-19 hit in early September people began erecting makeshift barricades around their neighbourhoods, denying him access. His earnings fell by a third.

恐慌的公民使事情變得更糟。 在緬甸商業重鎮仰光，提哈（Thiha）以前在工人階級區擔任獨立拾荒者，月入50萬緬元（約370美元）。當9月初第二波新冠疫情來襲時，人們開始在住家周遭搭建臨時路障，拒絕他進入。他的收入下降了三分之一。

It is not just the people who are keeping Mr Thiha from the rubbish. The pandemic is producing a lot more medical waste. The amount of it produced in China’s Hubei province increased by 370% after the outbreak began. Manila and Jakarta are expected to produce an extra 280 and 210 tonnes every day, respectively. The Yangon City Development Committee (ycdc) is struggling to keep this sort of dangerous refuse away from the public in general and people like Mr Thiha in particular. It has been tasked with collecting, separating and burning the 50 tonnes of rubbish produced by hospitals and quarantine centres every day. (The sad duty of cremating victims of covid-19 has also fallen to the ycdc. “That’s a different job and also a stressful job for my people,” sighs Aung Myint Maw, deputy director of the sanitation department.)

不僅是讓提哈遠離垃圾的人們，疫情還製造更多的醫療廢棄物。疫情爆發後，中國湖北省醫療廢棄物增加370％，馬尼拉和雅加達每天分別估增280噸和210噸。仰光市發展協會（ycdc）努力使這種危險垃圾遠離一般群眾及像提哈這樣特別的人。他們的任務是每天收集、隔離和燃燒醫院和檢疫中心產生的50噸垃圾。將新冠疫亡者火化的可悲責任也落到ycdc頭上。衛生部門副主任莫夫嘆道：「這對我的員工來說是另一項工作，而且壓力很大。」。

Such care reflects a genuine concern. Some of the proliferation of pandemic-associated waste has been a benefit to litterpickers—think of all those tiddly little bottles of hand sanitiser. But in poor cities that lack the infrastructure to segregate medical waste it can be a real problem.

這種照顧反映出真正的關切。疫情相關廢棄物部分擴散對拾荒者來說是一個益處-想想所有那些小巧的手部消毒瓶。但是在缺乏基礎設施來隔開醫療廢棄物的貧困城市，這可能是真正的問題。

Scientists believe covid-19 is transmitted via tiny droplets that people exhale as they breathe, talk and cough. These virus particles can remain infective after a day spent on cardboard, at least two days on steel and three on plastic. Rifling through rubbish is never particularly safe from a health point of view; this year’s influx of infected material makes the business even riskier, particularly for those without personal protective equipment (ppe) and little understanding of how the disease spreads.

科學家認為，新冠病毒藉由人們呼吸、說話和咳嗽時呼出的飛沫傳播。這些病毒微粒沾染紙板一天、鋼板至少兩天、塑膠三天後仍具有傳染力。從健康的角度來看，在垃圾堆裡亂翻從未特別安全。今年湧入受感染用具使資源回收業的風險更大，尤其是對於那些沒有個人防護設備（ppe）且對疾病傳播方式了解甚少的人。

The falling price of recyclables presents a third problem. The formal recycling industry ground to a halt when countries closed their borders, making it impossible to ferry waste to the big plants which process it. There are fewer end-buyers for the plastic, paper and metal that scavengers collect. Data from the city of Pune in India show the price of polyethylene terephthalate, the plastic used to make water bottles, has dropped to as little as 10 rupees ($0.01) per kilogram from 22 rupees before the pandemic (see chart). Cardboard is two rupees per kilogram, half what it was.

回收物的價格下降產生了第三個問題。各國關閉邊界後，正規的回收業因無法將廢棄物運送到大型工廠處理，陷入停頓。拾荒者收集的塑料、紙張和金屬的最終買家少了。印度浦那的數據顯示，用於製造水瓶的塑料聚對苯二甲酸乙二醇酯（PET）的每公斤價格從疫情前的22盧比跌至10盧比（0.01美元），紙板則腰斬至每公斤2盧比。

That has been devastating for Rani Shivsharan, who has been collecting waste in Pune for over 25 years. Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s signature Swachh Bharat, or Clean India, mission, the local authority does not recognise her work. Ms Shivsharan has not received any cash transfers or food rations since covid struck. There are days when she survives on tea. “I am scared, but what can I do?” she asks.

這對希夫沙蘭（Rani Shivsharan）來說是場災難，她在浦那收集廢棄物超過25年。儘管總理莫迪（Narendra Modi）簽署Swachh Bharat--即「清潔印度」運動，但地方當局不承認她的工作。自疫情來襲後，希夫沙蘭未收到任何現金轉帳或食物配給，有許多天只靠喝茶存活。 「我很害怕，但是我該怎麼辦？」她問。

Brothers and sisters 兄弟姐妹

Organised waste-pickers are better off on all three counts. A survey of 140 waste-picking associations in Brazil found that after serious disruption in the first weeks and months of the pandemic, three-quarters were back in operation by May. Almost all of them were using ppe, almost 80% had sent vulnerable members into isolation and 45% were quarantining scrap before sorting it. In Belo Horizonte, in south-eastern Brazil, a waste-pickers’ co-operative successfully lobbied the mayor’s office for food baskets and hygiene kits to see them through the pandemic.

有組織的資源回收業在這三方面都比較好。調查巴西140個資源回收協會後發現，協會在疫情最初幾周和幾個月受重創，5月時四分之三已恢復營運。幾乎所有人都有個人防護設備，近80％協會將脆弱的成員送到隔離所，45％的協會在分類前隔離廢棄物。在巴西東南部的貝洛奧里藏特，一個拾荒合作社成功遊說市長辦公室提供食物籃和衛生用品包，以防疫情蔓延。

The Belo Horizonte association had learned to fight for its members well before the pandemic. It has been almost 20 years since a group of single mothers in the city started collecting plastic bottles. The co-operative has since won a contract with the local authorities, which pays 265 reais ($52) for each tonne of material they sort. Similar stories can be told all round the continent. Waste-workers in Latin American cities like Buenos Aires, Bogotá and São Paulo often operate in co-operatives. The fact that Latin America’s litter-pickers are better organised and better treated is not just a by-product of increased regional prosperity. It is also the result of pressure brought by the waste-pickers themselves and a strong social-justice movement supported by the Roman Catholic church.

貝洛奧里藏特協會自城市一群單身母親開始收集保特瓶已成立20年，早在疫情前就學會為會員而戰。此後更贏得與地方當局的合約，每噸物料支付265雷亞爾（52美元）。在整個拉美大陸都上演著類似的故事。布宜諾市、波哥大和聖保羅等拉丁美洲城市，拾荒者經常經營著合作社。拉丁美洲的垃圾收集者組織得更好，得到更好的待遇，這不僅是地區繁榮的副產品。這也是拾荒者本身施壓以及羅馬天主教會支持的強大的社會正義運動的結果

São Paulo has it sorted 聖保羅有所分類

This has seen waste-pickers achieve a formal recognition they lack in many cities in Africa. Brazil has been gathering data on the sector for almost 20 years, from the time when waste-picking became an occupation listed in the national registry. Argentina legalised waste-picking in 2002 and has since created a government agency dedicated to the sector: it has a multimillion-dollar budget. Working together, waste-pickers can lobby for contracts or invest in sheds where they sort the day’s harvest and store it until traders offer a good price. The many local names for collectors reflect a sometimes sophisticated division of labour. Cirujas, cartoneros, recicladores and chatarreros may each differ in responsibility and status city by city. By no means all of those who work on the dumps are in associations. But the successes of those who are often help those who are not, too.

拾荒業已獲得正式認可，這是非洲許多城市所缺乏的。巴西從資源回收業列入國家登記冊的職業起，已蒐集數據近20年。阿根廷於2002年將資源回收業合法化，成立專門負責的政府機構：預算有數百萬美元。拾荒者團結起來，可遊說爭取合約，或投資買棚子，在裡面對數天的收穫進行分類，並儲放到交易商開出好價錢。當地對回收業有許多的稱呼，反映有時複雜的勞動分工。Cirujas，cartoneros，reciladores和chatarreros在不同城市的責任和地位可能不同。不是所有在垃圾場工作的人都是協會成員，但那些成功者也會幫助還沒成功的人。

None of this has been easy, says Martha Chen, a Harvard lecturer who advises Wiego, a non-profit focused on women in informal work. “Someone from the public or the government doesn’t wake up one morning and think: ‘Let’s think about the waste-pickers’,” she says. “These gains come from years and years of struggle.”

沒有一件事是不勞而獲，哈佛大學的講師辰（Martha Chen）說，她為Wiego提供諮詢，該非營利組織聚焦於無正職工作的女性。不會有個公眾或政府機關的某人早上醒來就想：「讓我們考慮一下拾荒者吧。」她說，「這些成果來自多年的奮鬥。」

Other regions aren’t going to integrate informal workers into their waste-management systems overnight. But there is one way in which covid-19 might help them do their work and do it safely. In the midst of a public-health emergency, city folk across the globe have begun to appreciate those who put themselves at risk to keep the streets clean. India, with its entrenched caste system, has treated its waste-workers particularly badly in the past. But this year households in Pune have been handing out food packages and cash bonuses to the people who collect their rubbish. It is the same story on the streets of London, where children have adorned their windows with notes of thanks. Rainbows, hearts and smiley faces are dedicated to doctors, postal workers and binmen. 

其他地區不會在一夜之間，將非正式勞工納入他們的廢棄物管理體系。但總有一個方法可以幫助他們在新冠疫情下工作並保持安全。在公共衛生緊急事件爆發之際，全球城市居民開始感激置身險境維持街道清潔的人。印度擁有根深蒂固的種姓制度，過去對待處理廢棄物的勞工極為糟糕。但是今年浦那的家庭向收集垃圾的人們分發食物包和現金獎勵。倫敦街頭也發生同樣的事，孩子們在窗戶上裝飾著感謝的字條，將彩虹、愛心和笑臉獻給醫生，郵差和清潔工。 ■

終結煤炭--是時候讓煤碳走入歷史

 

Killing coal 終結煤炭

Time to make coal history 

是時候讓煤碳走入歷史

Coal is at the toxic heart of the fossil-fuel economy 煤是化石燃料經濟的有毒核心

Leaders

Dec 3rd 2020 edition

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Dec 3rd 2020

Around the world the mood is shifting. Xi Jinping has adopted a target to cut China’s net carbon emissions to zero by 2060. Under Joe Biden, America will rejoin the Paris agreement, which it adopted five years ago. In the financial markets clean-energy firms are all the rage. This month Tesla will join the s&p 500 share index—as one of its largest members.

世界的氣氛正在轉變。習近平制定2060年中國達到淨零碳排放量的目標。在拜登政權下，美國將重新加入五年前通過的《巴黎協定》。在金融市場上，潔淨能源公司風靡全球。本月特斯拉納入標普500，並躍升該指數主要成分股。

Remarkably, in a realm where words are cheap, there has been action, too. In America and Europe the consumption of coal, the largest source of greenhouse gases, has fallen by 34% since 2009. The International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental body, reckons that global use will never surpass its pre-covid peak.

值得注意的是，一個承諾廉價的領域，也採取行動。自2009年以來，歐美國家煤炭的消耗量（溫室氣體最大來源）下降34％。政府間組織的國際能源署（IEA）估計，全球煤炭使用量永遠不會超過疫情前的高峰。

Yet coal still accounts for around 27% of the raw energy used to power everything from cars to electric grids. Unlike natural gas and oil, it is concentrated carbon, and thus it accounts for a staggering 39% of annual emissions of CO² from fossil fuels. If global emissions are to fall far enough, fast enough, the task now is to double down on the West’s success and repeat it in Asia. It will not be easy.

然而，從汽車到電網，驅動這一切需要使用的原料能源中，煤炭仍占27％左右。與天然氣和石油不同，它是濃縮碳，因此占化石燃料每年碳排量驚人，達39％。如果要使全球排放量降得夠低、夠快，那麼現在的任務是使西方的成果倍增，並複製到亞洲，才沒那麼簡單。

Coal came of age in the Industrial Revolution. In the rich world its use in furnaces and boilers peaked in the 1930s and faded as cleaner fuels became available. Consumption in the West has recently collapsed. In Britain the last coal-fired power plants could close as soon as 2022. Peabody Energy, a big American coal miner, has warned that it may go bankrupt for the second time in five years.

煤炭產業在工業革命時期發展成熟，富國用於熔爐和汽鍋在1930年代攀峰，隨著可取得潔淨燃料而逐漸衰頹（沒落）。西方國家的煤炭消費量最近已經崩跌。英國最後一座燃煤發電廠最快在2022年關閉。美國大型煤礦公司皮博迪能源（Peabody Energy）警告可能在五年內第二次破產。

Although carbon prices accelerated the shift in Europe, the Trump administration has favoured America’s coal industry with deregulation and political support—and still it has declined. One reason is competition from cheap natural gas produced in America by fracking. Tax credits and subsidies have prompted renewables to scale up, which has in turn helped drive down their costs. Solar farms and onshore wind are now the cheapest source of new electricity for at least two-thirds of the world’s population, says Bloombergnef, a data group. As coal faces cleaner rivals and the prospect of more regulation, banks and investors are turning away, raising coal’s cost of capital.

碳定價加速歐洲轉變，即使川普政府放鬆管制和政治偏袒，美國的煤炭行業仍在下降。原因之一是來自美國水力壓裂法生產的廉價天然氣競爭，以及稅額抵免和補貼，促使再生能源擴大規模，進而有助於降低成本。數據小組彭博涅夫說，對至少三分之二的世界人口來說，太陽能農場和海風是現在最便宜的新電力來源。隨著煤炭面臨更潔淨的競爭者和更多監管的前景，銀行和投資者正在逐漸遠離煤炭，增加煤炭的資本成本。

This is a victory, but only a partial one. In the past decade, as Europe has turned against coal, consumption in Asia has grown by a quarter. The continent now accounts for 77% of all coal use. China alone burns more than two-thirds of that, followed by India. Coal dominates in some medium-sized, fast-growing economies, including Indonesia and Vietnam.

這是場勝利，但只是局部性的。過去十年，過去十年，在歐洲反煤的同時，亞洲的消費量卻增加四分之一。（*注意as的用法，未必指因果關係）.現在亞洲占總煤炭用量77％，光是中國就燒掉其中的三分之二，其次是印度。一些中型、快速發展的經濟體仍以使用煤炭為主，包括印尼和越南。

If the aim is to limit global temperature rises to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, it is no good waiting for Asia’s appetite for coal to fade. New plants are still being built. Many completed ones are not yet fully utilised and still have decades of life in them. Nor is it enough to expect a solution from “clean coal” technologies, which aim to capture and store emissions as they are released. They may help deal with pollution from industrial uses, such as steelmaking, but they are too expensive for power generation.

如果目標是把全球升溫限制在比工業化前的水準上升2°C，那麼靜待亞洲對煤炭的胃口減退就一無是處。亞洲仍​​在建造新的電廠，許多完成的電廠未充分利用，且仍具有數十年的生命，期盼「潔淨煤技術」捕獲和儲存排放物還不夠，它們也許有助處理煉鋼等工業用汙染，但發電成本太過昂貴。

Hence Asia needs new policies to kick its coal habit, and soon. The goal should be to stop new coal-fired power plants being built and to retire existing ones. Some countries have taken a first step, by imposing new targets and bans. The Philippines has declared a moratorium on new plants; Japan and Bangladesh are slowing construction, too. China’s new five-year-plan, which will be published next year, may limit coal use. It should set its cap at current levels, so that the decline can start immediately.

因此亞洲想快點戒除燃煤惡習，需要新的政策， 目標應是停止建造新的燃煤電廠，並讓現有的除役。一些國家實施新目標和禁令，邁出第一步。菲律賓宣布停建新電廠。日本和孟加拉也在減少建設。中國明年發布「十四五」計劃，可能會限制煤炭使用。它應該將當前水準訂為上限，以便減煤可以立即行動。

If targets are to be credible, Asian countries must tackle deeper problems. The strategy that worked in Europe and America will get them only so far, because the mining firms, power stations, equipment-makers and the banks that finance them are often state-controlled. Market forces and carbon taxes, which use price signals to change incentives, are therefore less effective. And coal politics is treacherous. The coal economy forms a nexus of employment, debt, tax revenues and exports. China has used its Belt and Road Initiative to sell both mining machinery and power plants. Across the region, local governments depend on coal for revenues. Many will defend it ferociously.

如果目標可信任，亞洲國家必須解決更深層的問題。對歐美有效的策略，在亞洲只能到此為止，因為採礦公司、發電廠、設備製造商和提供資金的銀行通常由國家控制。因此利用價格機制做動力的市場力量和碳稅，變得較無效率。煤炭政治詭譎多變。煤炭經濟形成一種從聘僱、債務、稅收到出口環環相扣的關係。中國利用「一帶一路」出售採礦機械和發電廠。在這個地區，各地政府收入依賴煤炭，許多勢必激烈捍衛。

One step in fighting regional lobbies is to redesign power systems so that renewables can compete fairly and incentives work. Most renewables provide only intermittent power, because the weather is changeable. National smart grids can mitigate this by connecting different regions. Too many of Asia’s electricity systems muffle market signals because they are locked into legacy long-term supply contracts with coal firms, and because they are riddled with opaque subsidies and price caps. Removing these so that markets and taxes work better will let renewable power undercut coal.

對抗地方遊說勢力的一步是重新設計電力系統，好讓再生能源能夠公平競爭，也讓獎勵措施能奏效。由於天氣多變，大多數再生能源僅間歇性地提供電力。國家智慧電網可透過連接不同區域緩解。太多的亞洲電力系統掩蓋住市場訊號，既因為被煤炭公司舊有的長期供應合約綁住，也因為充斥著不透明的補貼和價格上限。移除這些，讓市場和稅制發揮更大作用，將使再生能源價格低於煤炭。

The other step is to compensate losers. The lesson from destitute mining towns in south Wales and West Virginia is that job losses store up political tensions. Coal India, the national mining colossus, has 270,000 workers. From Shanxi province in China to Jharkhand in India, local governments will need fiscal transfers to help rebalance their economies. Banks may need to be recapitalised: China’s state lenders may have up to $1trn at stake.

另一步是補償輸家。從南威爾士和西維吉尼亞州的貧瘠礦城學到的教訓是，失業醞釀政治緊張。國營礦業巨頭印度煤炭公司擁有270,000名工人。 從中國山西省到印度賈坎德省，地方政府將需要財政轉移支付（財政補助），協助他們重新平衡經濟。銀行可能需要進行資本重組：中國的國有借貸者可能持有上看1兆美元的股份。

Europe and America have shown that King Coal can be dethroned, but they cannot be bystanders as Asia works to complete the revolution. Coal powered the West’s development. In 2019 coal consumption per person in India was less than half that in America. It is in Asia’s long-term interests to topple coal, but the short-term political and economic costs are large enough that action may be too slow. If politicians in Europe and America are serious about fighting global warming, they must work harder to depress coal elsewhere. That includes honouring prior promises to help developing countries deal with climate change.

歐美國家已證明國王煤場可以被廢黜，但當亞洲努力完成改革，它們不能冷眼旁觀。煤炭推動西方的發展。 2019年印度人均煤炭消費量不到美國的一半。廢煤符合亞洲的長遠利益，但短期政治和經濟的代價太大，造成行動可能太慢。如果歐美的政治人物認真對抗全球暖化，他們必須更加努力地降低其他地方的用煤量，包括履行先前的承諾，幫助發展中國家應對氣候變遷。

Ultimately, though, the responsibility will lie with Asia itself. And the good news is that it is overwhelmingly in Asia’s interest to do so. Its people, infrastructure and agriculture are dangerously exposed to the droughts, flooding, storms and rising sea levels caused by climate change. A growing middle class yearns for their governments to clean up Asia’s choking metropolises. And renewable energy offers a path to cheaper power, generated at home, as well as a source of industrial employment and innovation. Coal’s days are numbered. The sooner it is consigned to museums and history books, the better. ■

但最終，責任將落在亞洲自己肩上。好消息是這樣做絕對符合亞洲的利益。 氣候變遷導致的乾旱、洪水、風暴和海平面上升，使亞洲的人民、基礎設施和農業暴露在危險之中。愈來愈多的中產階級渴望他們的政府清理亞洲令人窒息的大都市。再生能源提供一條的途徑，使電力更低廉、在家產生，且是工業領域就業和創新的來源。煤炭氣數已盡，愈早走入博物館和史書，愈好。 ■

公開市場--IPO盛宴將持續嗎？

 

Public markets 公開市場

Will the IPO bonanza last? IPO盛宴將持續嗎？

From Airbnb to Tesla, 2020 will be a bumper year for capital-raising

從Airbnb到特斯拉，2020年將是籌資市場的豐收年

Dec 12th 2020

For over a decade many people in finance have worried about the decline of the public company. Big firms were shrinking their capital bases by buying back shares. And fast-growing firms, including several hundred tech “unicorns”—startups worth over $1bn—chose to remain in private hands rather than bother with an initial public offering (ipo). The result was riskier corporate balance-sheets and the exclusion of ordinary investors from the ownership of the economy’s most exciting firms.

十多年來，金融界許多人一直擔心上市公司的衰落。大公司透過買回自家股減資。快速成長的公司，包括數百家科技「獨角獸」（市值超過10億美元的新創企業），選擇維持由私人掌控，不想為首次公開募股（IPO）而煩惱。結果是公司資產負債表風險升高，而普通人想投資入股這些最令人心動的公司，卻不得其門而入。

This year has seen a reversal of this trend with an equity-raising bonanza. In the past few days Tesla has said it will sell $5bn of new shares, while DoorDash, a food-delivery company, raised $3.4bn in an ipo. In Hong Kong shares of jd Health, a digital-medicine star, rose by over 50% on their first day of trading after its $3.5bn ipo. As we went to press Airbnb, one of the largest unicorns, was listing at a valuation of over $40bn. Worldwide, some $800bn of equity has been raised in 2020 by non-financial firms, the highest sum on record. In America in the last quarter the proceeds should roughly match the amount of shares that companies have bought back.

今年的募資盛宴扭轉此趨勢。過去幾天，特斯拉表示將發行50億美元新股，而餐飲外送公司DoorDash首次公開募股34億美元。在香港，數位醫療巨星京東健康在35億美元的IPO後，首個交易日股價上漲超過50％，在本期雜誌付梓之際，大型獨角獸Airbnb上市，估值超過400億美元。美國上季籌資應與公司買回的股票數量大致相同。

Equity is more expensive than borrowing, but has attractions. It is permanent capital that does not need to be repaid. And because it does not come with interest payments it is flexible, making firms more resilient. It is back in fashion for several reasons. Some firms need to repair the damage from the pandemic, for example Rolls-Royce, an aircraft-engine maker, and Carnival Cruises. The tech boom means unicorns can go public at sky-high valuations. Frothy share prices allow the founders of firms that are already listed to raise capital without diluting their own stake by as much—something Tesla’s Elon Musk has spotted.

發行股權比借貸更昂貴，但具有吸引力。股權是永久性資本，不需要償還。而且由於不需支付利息，具有靈活性，使公司更具彈性。許多原因使它再次流行。一些公司需要修復疫病流行造成的損失，例如飛機引擎製造商勞斯萊斯和嘉年華郵輪公司。科技股大漲意味著獨角獸能以天價估值上市。泡沫化的股價使已上市公司的創始人籌資時，不用稀釋自己的股份-特斯拉的馬斯克已發現這點。

There are other factors, too. More Chinese firms are coming of age. This year Nongfu Spring, China’s answer to Evian, floated, making its founder the country’s richest man. Investors are experimenting with legal structures that they think are more efficient than ipos, including spacs (special purpose acquisition companies). Finally, because covid-19 has led many firms to cut their buybacks there is less equity being retired than normal.

還有其他原因。更多的中國公司正在逐漸成熟。d,今年，中國版依雲「農夫山泉」股票公開上市，使創始人成為中國首富。投資者正在試驗他們認為比IPO更有效的合法結構，包括借殼上市。最後一點，新冠疫情導致許多公司減少實施庫藏股，因此回收註銷的股份比正常情況少。

Investors are euphoric but they face several risks. One is that prices are too high. Another is that it is not yet clear whether overall corporate indebtedness will fall, partly because the damage from lockdowns is still mounting. For non-financial companies in America’s s&p 500 index, net debt (debt less cash) dropped only slightly in the third quarter of this year, and remains above its level in 2019. Some firms are still burning cash and perhaps a fifth of s&p 500 firms are overborrowed. As the pandemic abates, firms may reinstate buybacks and dividends.

投資者欣喜若狂，但他們面臨許多風險。一是價格太高，另一風險則是目前尚不清楚整體公司債務是否會下降，部分原因是封鎖所造成的損害仍在攀升。對於美國標普500的非金融公司而言，淨債務（債務減去現金）在今年第3季僅略為下降，但仍持續高於2019年水準。一些公司仍在燒錢，也許五分之一的標普500公司超額借貸。隨著疫病流行的減弱，企業可能會恢復股票回購和分紅。

The last danger stems from a cohort of firms having too much cash. In the 1970s Michael Jensen, a scholar, argued that debt forced discipline on managers. His ideas were taken too far by Wall Street’s junk-bond salesmen, but the risk of executives wasting cash on deals or vanity projects is real. The five biggest tech firms have over $550bn sitting around. They might try big takeovers—think of Apple buying Netflix. Meanwhile, some newly listed firms have oodles of cash, but give outside investors only limited voting power, making managers unaccountable.

最後的危險源自於大批公司坐擁過多現金。 1970年代，學者詹森主張債務迫使經理人守紀律。華爾街的垃圾債推銷員把他的想法大肆推廣，但是企業主管在併購交易或虛榮計畫上揮金如土的風險，確實存在。五家最大的科技公司的資產總值超過5,500億美元。他們可能會嘗試進行大筆收購，想像一下蘋果公司收購Netflix。同時，一些新上市的公司擁有大量現金，但只賦予外部投資者有限的投票權，使經理人不用承擔責任。

Governments should welcome the equity boom. For years libertarians have argued that the only way to revive ipos is by watering down corporate-governance rules. They have been proved wrong. Many politicians long to ban buybacks, which they accuse of all sorts of evils (in fact they are similar to dividends but more flexible, which came in handy this year). If politicians really want to sustain healthy equity markets, they should instead reform tax codes, which almost everywhere favour debt by making interest costs tax-deductible. Removing the tax break for debt and putting equity on a level playing field should be the priority. It has the added advantage that the proceeds should help governments repay their own colossal debts.

各國政府應歡迎股市榮景。多年來，自由主義者一直主張，使IPO重新流行的唯一方法是淡化公司治理規則。他們被證明是錯誤的。許多政治人物渴望禁止實施庫藏股，他們指責各種弊端（實際上，它們類似於股息，但更靈活，今年就派上用場）。如果政治人物真的想維持健康的股票市場，他們應該轉向改革稅制。幾乎各地的稅制都偏袒債務，因為利息成本可以抵税。應優先考慮移除債務的稅務減免，對股權都一視同仁。這麼做還有個好處，就是税收可以幫助政府償還自己的巨額債務。

世界經濟--疫病流行後，通膨會回來嗎？

 

The world economy 世界經濟

After the pandemic, will inflation return?

疫病流行後，通膨會回來嗎？

Low inflation underpins today’s economic policy. It is not guaranteed to last. 低通膨支撐當今的經濟政策，但不保證持續

Leaders

Dec 12th 2020 edition

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Economists love to disagree, but almost all of them will tell you that inflation is dead. The premise of low inflation is baked into economic policies and financial markets. It is why central banks can cut interest rates to around zero and buy up mountains of government bonds. It explains how governments have been able to go on an epic spending and borrowing binge in order to save the economy from the ravages of the pandemic—and why rich-world public debt of 125% of gdp barely raises an eyebrow. The search for yield has propelled the s&p 500 index of shares to new highs even as the number of Americans in hospital with covid-19 has surpassed 100,000. The only way to justify such a blistering-hot stockmarket is if you expect a strong but inflationless economic rebound in 2021 and beyond.

經濟學家很愛獨排眾議，但幾乎所有人都會告訴你通膨已死。 低通膨的前提已嵌入經濟政策和金融市場，這就是為什麼央行可將利率砍至近零，並購買成山成海的政府債券。它解釋政府如何能夠毫無節制地持續極大規模的支出和借貸，來拯救經濟免於疫病流行的摧殘—以及為何富國公共債務占GDP的125％，卻無人大驚小怪。投資人對收益率的追求推升標普500抵至歷史新高，儘管美國因感染新冠病毒而住院的人數已超過10萬。唯一解釋如此狂熱的股市是：你可能預計2021年及之後會有強勁但無通膨的經濟復甦。

Yet as we explain this week, an increasingly vocal band of dissenters thinks that the world could emerge from the pandemic into an era of higher inflation. Their arguments are hardly overwhelming, but neither are they empty. Even a small probability of having to deal with a surge in inflation is worrying, because the stock of debt is so large and central-bank balance-sheets are swollen. Rather than ignore the risk, governments should take action now to insure themselves against it.

然而，正如我們本周解釋的那樣，愈來愈多異議者認為，世界可能走出疫病流行，來到通膨率更高的時代。他們的論點並未強到無可辯駁，但也不空洞。即使須應付通膨激增的可能性很小，卻也令人擔憂，因為債務量如此龐大，且央行資產負債表膨脹。政府應立即採取行動，以確保自己免受威脅，而不是忽略風險。

In the decades since Margaret Thatcher warned of a vicious cycle of prices and wages that threatened to “destroy” society, the rich world has come to take low inflation for granted. Before the pandemic even an ultra-tight jobs market could not jolt prices upwards, and now armies of people are unemployed. Many economists think the West, and especially the euro zone, is heading the way of Japan, which fell into deflation in the 1990s and has since struggled to lift price rises far above zero.

自從柴契爾夫人警告物價和工資的惡性循環威脅將「毀滅」社會，已過了幾十年，富國將低通膨視為理所當然。在疫病流行前，即使是極度緊繃的就業市場，都無法拉抬物價上漲，更別說現在有大量的失業人口。許多經濟學家認為，西方--尤其是歐元區--正在步入日本的後塵，日本1990年代陷入通縮，後來費力拉抬物價，通膨率卻始終未能大幅高於零。

Predicting the end of this trend is a kind of apostasy. After the financial crisis some hawks warned that bond buying by central banks (known as quantitative easing, or qe) would reignite inflation. They ended up looking silly.

預測這種趨勢的結束，簡直可說是離經叛道。金融危機後，一些鷹派人士警告，央行購債（稱為量化寬鬆或是ＱＥ）將重燃通膨，他們最後看起來很蠢。

Today the inflationistas’ arguments are stronger. One risk is of a temporary burst of inflation next year. In contrast to the period after the financial crisis, broad measures of the rich-world money supply have shot up in 2020, because banks have been lending freely. Stuck at home, people have been unable to spend all their money and their bank-balances have swelled. But once they are vaccinated and liberated from the tyranny of Zoom, exuberant consumers may go on a spending spree that outpaces the ability of firms to restore and expand their capacity, causing prices to rise. The global economy already shows signs of suffering from bottlenecks. The price of copper, for example, is 25% higher than at the start of 2020.

如今，通膨主義者的論點更加強烈。風險之一是明年通膨暫時爆發。由於銀行放款無拘無束，富國廣義貨幣供給量在2020年急劇上升，與後金融海嘯時期對照鮮明。人們困在家裡，無法花光所有的錢，銀行存款也膨脹了。但一旦他們接種疫苗且掙脫Zoom的宰制，精力旺盛的消費者可能大肆消費，超出公司能重拾並擴大產能的速度，造成物價上揚。全球經濟已顯示出受苦於瓶頸的跡象。例如，銅的價格比2020年初高5％。

The world should be able to manage such a temporary burst of inflation. But the second inflationista argument is that more persistent price pressures will also emerge, as structural disinflationary forces go into reverse. In the West and in Asia many societies are ageing, creating shortages of workers. For years globalisation lowered inflation by creating a more efficient market for goods and labour. Now globalisation is in retreat.

世界應該能夠應付這種暫時性暴增的通膨。但是通膨主義者的第二個論點是，隨著結構性通縮力量的逆轉，更持久的物價壓力也將浮現。在西方和亞洲，許多社會進入高齡化，進而造成工人短缺。多年來，全球化創造更有效率的商品和勞動市場降低通膨。現在全球化正在退縮。

Their third argument is that politicians and officials are complacent. The Federal Reserve says it wants inflation to overshoot its 2% target to make up for lost ground; the European Central Bank, which announced more stimulus on December 10th, may yet follow suit. Weighed down by the need to pay for an ageing population and health care, politicians will increasingly favour big budget deficits.

他們第三個論點是政治人物和官員都在沾沾自喜。美國聯準會希望通膨率超過2％的目標，以彌補過去的損失，歐洲央行可能效仿美國，並在12月10日宣布更多的刺激計畫。政治人物承受必須為人口老化和醫療照護找財源的壓力，將愈來愈傾向龐大的預算赤字。

Might these arguments prove correct? A temporary rebound in inflation next year is perfectly possible. At first it would be welcome—a sign economies were recovering from the pandemic. It would inflate away a modest amount of debt. Policymakers might even breathe a sigh of relief, especially in Japan and the euro zone, where prices are falling (though rapid changes in the pattern of consumer spending may have muddied the statistics).

這些論點證明正確嗎？明年通膨暫時性反彈是完全有可能的。起初它將受到歡迎，這是經濟從疫病流行中恢復的跡象。它將適度的減少債務。政策制定者甚至可以鬆口氣，尤其是在日本及歐元區，那裡的物價正在下跌。儘管消費者支出方式的快速變化，可能使統計數字混淆。

The odds of a more sustained period of inflation remain low. But if central banks had to raise interest rates to stop price rises getting out of hand, the consequences would be serious. Markets would tumble and indebted firms would falter. More important, the full cost of the state’s vastly expanded balance-sheet—both governments’ debt and the central banks’ liabilities—would become alarmingly apparent. To understand why requires peering, for a moment, into how they are organised.

持續通膨的可能性仍然很小。但若央行須靠升息來阻止物價上漲將一發不可收拾，後果將是嚴重的。市場將暴跌，負債累累的公司將步履蹣跚。更重要的是，國家大舉擴張的資產負債表的全部成本（包括政府債務及央行的負債）將變得非常明顯。要理解原因，需凝視一下它們的組織方式。

For all the talk about “locking in” today’s low long-term interest rates, governments’ dirty secret is that they have been doing the opposite, issuing short-term debt in a bet that short-term interest rates will remain low. The average maturity of American Treasuries, for example, has fallen from 70 months to 63. Central banks have been making a similar wager. Because the reserves they create to buy bonds carry a floating interest rate, they are comparable to short-term borrowing. In November Britain’s fiscal watchdog warned that a combination of new issuance and qe had left the state’s debt-service costs twice as sensitive to short-term rates as they were at the start of the year, and nearly three times as much as in 2012.

儘管種種說法要把長期利率「鎖在」今日的低點，各國政府的齷齪祕密是他們卻反其道而行----發行短期債券，押注短期利率仍將偏低。例如，美國公債的平均到期日從70個月降至63個月。各國央行一直在進行類似的賭注，由於他們為購買債券而創造的儲備金為浮動利率，因此可以與短期借款相提並論。 英國財政監督機構11月警告，發行新債加上量化寬鬆，使政府償債成本對短期利率的敏感度（受牽連的程度），變成年初時的二倍，且幾乎是2012年的三倍。

So while the probability of an inflation scare may have risen only slightly, its consequences would be worse. Countries need to insure themselves against this tail risk by reorganising their liabilities. Governments should fund fiscal stimulus by issuing long-term debt. Most central banks should start an orderly reversal of qe and instead loosen monetary policy by taking short-term interest rates negative. Finance ministries should incorporate risks taken by the central bank into their budgeting (and the euro zone should find a better tool than qe for mutualising the debts of its member states). Shortening the maturity of the state’s balance-sheet—as in 2020—must only ever be a last resort, and should not become the main tool of economic policy.

因此，儘管通膨恐慌的可能性僅微微上升，但後果可能更糟。各國需要重組債務，來確保自己免受這種極端風險的影響。政府應透過發行長期債券，籌措財政刺激所需的資金。 大多數央行應開始循序漸進地扭轉ＱＥ，並改用短期負利率來寬鬆貨幣政策。財政部應該將央行承擔的風險納入預算中（歐元區應找到比量化寬鬆更好的工具，共同承擔成員國的債務）。縮短國家資產負債表的到期日（如2020年）只能是最後手段，不應成為經濟政策的主要工具。

In praise of mothballs 讚揚備案

The chances are the inflationistas are wrong. Even the arch-monetarist Milton Friedman, who inspired Thatcher, admitted late in his life that the short-term link between the money supply and inflation had broken down. But the covid-19 pandemic has shown the value of preparing for rare but devastating events. The return of inflation should be no exception. 

通膨主義者可能是錯的，即使是啟發柴契爾夫人的極端貨幣主義者傅利曼，在他生命的晚期也承認，貨幣供給和通膨間的短期關連已經破裂。但新冠肺炎疫情顯示，對罕見但災難性事件預做準備，價值甚大。防範通膨捲土重來，也不例外。