Killing coal 終結煤炭
Time to make coal history
是時候讓煤碳走入歷史
Coal is at the toxic heart of the fossil-fuel economy 煤是化石燃料經濟的有毒核心
Dec 3rd 2020
Around the world the mood is shifting. Xi Jinping has adopted a target to cut China’s net carbon emissions to zero by 2060. Under Joe Biden, America will rejoin the Paris agreement, which it adopted five years ago. In the financial markets clean-energy firms are all the rage. This month Tesla will join the s&p 500 share index—as one of its largest members.
世界的氣氛正在轉變。習近平制定2060年中國達到淨零碳排放量的目標。在拜登政權下，美國將重新加入五年前通過的《巴黎協定》。在金融市場上，潔淨能源公司風靡全球。本月特斯拉納入標普500，並躍升該指數主要成分股。
Remarkably, in a realm where words are cheap, there has been action, too. In America and Europe the consumption of coal, the largest source of greenhouse gases, has fallen by 34% since 2009. The International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental body, reckons that global use will never surpass its pre-covid peak.
值得注意的是，一個承諾廉價的領域，也採取行動。自2009年以來，歐美國家煤炭的消耗量（溫室氣體最大來源）下降34％。政府間組織的國際能源署（IEA）估計，全球煤炭使用量永遠不會超過疫情前的高峰。
Yet coal still accounts for around 27% of the raw energy used to power everything from cars to electric grids. Unlike natural gas and oil, it is concentrated carbon, and thus it accounts for a staggering 39% of annual emissions of CO² from fossil fuels. If global emissions are to fall far enough, fast enough, the task now is to double down on the West’s success and repeat it in Asia. It will not be easy.
然而，從汽車到電網，驅動這一切需要使用的原料能源中，煤炭仍占27％左右。與天然氣和石油不同，它是濃縮碳，因此占化石燃料每年碳排量驚人，達39％。如果要使全球排放量降得夠低、夠快，那麼現在的任務是使西方的成果倍增，並複製到亞洲，才沒那麼簡單。
Coal came of age in the Industrial Revolution. In the rich world its use in furnaces and boilers peaked in the 1930s and faded as cleaner fuels became available. Consumption in the West has recently collapsed. In Britain the last coal-fired power plants could close as soon as 2022. Peabody Energy, a big American coal miner, has warned that it may go bankrupt for the second time in five years.
煤炭產業在工業革命時期發展成熟，富國用於熔爐和汽鍋在1930年代攀峰，隨著可取得潔淨燃料而逐漸衰頹（沒落）。西方國家的煤炭消費量最近已經崩跌。英國最後一座燃煤發電廠最快在2022年關閉。美國大型煤礦公司皮博迪能源（Peabody Energy）警告可能在五年內第二次破產。
Although carbon prices accelerated the shift in Europe, the Trump administration has favoured America’s coal industry with deregulation and political support—and still it has declined. One reason is competition from cheap natural gas produced in America by fracking. Tax credits and subsidies have prompted renewables to scale up, which has in turn helped drive down their costs. Solar farms and onshore wind are now the cheapest source of new electricity for at least two-thirds of the world’s population, says Bloombergnef, a data group. As coal faces cleaner rivals and the prospect of more regulation, banks and investors are turning away, raising coal’s cost of capital.
碳定價加速歐洲轉變，即使川普政府放鬆管制和政治偏袒，美國的煤炭行業仍在下降。原因之一是來自美國水力壓裂法生產的廉價天然氣競爭，以及稅額抵免和補貼，促使再生能源擴大規模，進而有助於降低成本。數據小組彭博涅夫說，對至少三分之二的世界人口來說，太陽能農場和海風是現在最便宜的新電力來源。隨著煤炭面臨更潔淨的競爭者和更多監管的前景，銀行和投資者正在逐漸遠離煤炭，增加煤炭的資本成本。
This is a victory, but only a partial one. In the past decade, as Europe has turned against coal, consumption in Asia has grown by a quarter. The continent now accounts for 77% of all coal use. China alone burns more than two-thirds of that, followed by India. Coal dominates in some medium-sized, fast-growing economies, including Indonesia and Vietnam.
這是場勝利，但只是局部性的。過去十年，過去十年，在歐洲反煤的同時，亞洲的消費量卻增加四分之一。（*注意as的用法，未必指因果關係）.現在亞洲占總煤炭用量77％，光是中國就燒掉其中的三分之二，其次是印度。一些中型、快速發展的經濟體仍以使用煤炭為主，包括印尼和越南。
If the aim is to limit global temperature rises to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, it is no good waiting for Asia’s appetite for coal to fade. New plants are still being built. Many completed ones are not yet fully utilised and still have decades of life in them. Nor is it enough to expect a solution from “clean coal” technologies, which aim to capture and store emissions as they are released. They may help deal with pollution from industrial uses, such as steelmaking, but they are too expensive for power generation.
如果目標是把全球升溫限制在比工業化前的水準上升2°C，那麼靜待亞洲對煤炭的胃口減退就一無是處。亞洲仍在建造新的電廠，許多完成的電廠未充分利用，且仍具有數十年的生命，期盼「潔淨煤技術」捕獲和儲存排放物還不夠，它們也許有助處理煉鋼等工業用汙染，但發電成本太過昂貴。
Hence Asia needs new policies to kick its coal habit, and soon. The goal should be to stop new coal-fired power plants being built and to retire existing ones. Some countries have taken a first step, by imposing new targets and bans. The Philippines has declared a moratorium on new plants; Japan and Bangladesh are slowing construction, too. China’s new five-year-plan, which will be published next year, may limit coal use. It should set its cap at current levels, so that the decline can start immediately.
因此亞洲想快點戒除燃煤惡習，需要新的政策， 目標應是停止建造新的燃煤電廠，並讓現有的除役。一些國家實施新目標和禁令，邁出第一步。菲律賓宣布停建新電廠。日本和孟加拉也在減少建設。中國明年發布「十四五」計劃，可能會限制煤炭使用。它應該將當前水準訂為上限，以便減煤可以立即行動。
If targets are to be credible, Asian countries must tackle deeper problems. The strategy that worked in Europe and America will get them only so far, because the mining firms, power stations, equipment-makers and the banks that finance them are often state-controlled. Market forces and carbon taxes, which use price signals to change incentives, are therefore less effective. And coal politics is treacherous. The coal economy forms a nexus of employment, debt, tax revenues and exports. China has used its Belt and Road Initiative to sell both mining machinery and power plants. Across the region, local governments depend on coal for revenues. Many will defend it ferociously.
如果目標可信任，亞洲國家必須解決更深層的問題。對歐美有效的策略，在亞洲只能到此為止，因為採礦公司、發電廠、設備製造商和提供資金的銀行通常由國家控制。因此利用價格機制做動力的市場力量和碳稅，變得較無效率。煤炭政治詭譎多變。煤炭經濟形成一種從聘僱、債務、稅收到出口環環相扣的關係。中國利用「一帶一路」出售採礦機械和發電廠。在這個地區，各地政府收入依賴煤炭，許多勢必激烈捍衛。
One step in fighting regional lobbies is to redesign power systems so that renewables can compete fairly and incentives work. Most renewables provide only intermittent power, because the weather is changeable. National smart grids can mitigate this by connecting different regions. Too many of Asia’s electricity systems muffle market signals because they are locked into legacy long-term supply contracts with coal firms, and because they are riddled with opaque subsidies and price caps. Removing these so that markets and taxes work better will let renewable power undercut coal.
對抗地方遊說勢力的一步是重新設計電力系統，好讓再生能源能夠公平競爭，也讓獎勵措施能奏效。由於天氣多變，大多數再生能源僅間歇性地提供電力。國家智慧電網可透過連接不同區域緩解。太多的亞洲電力系統掩蓋住市場訊號，既因為被煤炭公司舊有的長期供應合約綁住，也因為充斥著不透明的補貼和價格上限。移除這些，讓市場和稅制發揮更大作用，將使再生能源價格低於煤炭。
The other step is to compensate losers. The lesson from destitute mining towns in south Wales and West Virginia is that job losses store up political tensions. Coal India, the national mining colossus, has 270,000 workers. From Shanxi province in China to Jharkhand in India, local governments will need fiscal transfers to help rebalance their economies. Banks may need to be recapitalised: China’s state lenders may have up to $1trn at stake.
另一步是補償輸家。從南威爾士和西維吉尼亞州的貧瘠礦城學到的教訓是，失業醞釀政治緊張。國營礦業巨頭印度煤炭公司擁有270,000名工人。 從中國山西省到印度賈坎德省，地方政府將需要財政轉移支付（財政補助），協助他們重新平衡經濟。銀行可能需要進行資本重組：中國的國有借貸者可能持有上看1兆美元的股份。
Europe and America have shown that King Coal can be dethroned, but they cannot be bystanders as Asia works to complete the revolution. Coal powered the West’s development. In 2019 coal consumption per person in India was less than half that in America. It is in Asia’s long-term interests to topple coal, but the short-term political and economic costs are large enough that action may be too slow. If politicians in Europe and America are serious about fighting global warming, they must work harder to depress coal elsewhere. That includes honouring prior promises to help developing countries deal with climate change.
歐美國家已證明國王煤場可以被廢黜，但當亞洲努力完成改革，它們不能冷眼旁觀。煤炭推動西方的發展。 2019年印度人均煤炭消費量不到美國的一半。廢煤符合亞洲的長遠利益，但短期政治和經濟的代價太大，造成行動可能太慢。如果歐美的政治人物認真對抗全球暖化，他們必須更加努力地降低其他地方的用煤量，包括履行先前的承諾，幫助發展中國家應對氣候變遷。
Ultimately, though, the responsibility will lie with Asia itself. And the good news is that it is overwhelmingly in Asia’s interest to do so. Its people, infrastructure and agriculture are dangerously exposed to the droughts, flooding, storms and rising sea levels caused by climate change. A growing middle class yearns for their governments to clean up Asia’s choking metropolises. And renewable energy offers a path to cheaper power, generated at home, as well as a source of industrial employment and innovation. Coal’s days are numbered. The sooner it is consigned to museums and history books, the better. ■
但最終，責任將落在亞洲自己肩上。好消息是這樣做絕對符合亞洲的利益。 氣候變遷導致的乾旱、洪水、風暴和海平面上升，使亞洲的人民、基礎設施和農業暴露在危險之中。愈來愈多的中產階級渴望他們的政府清理亞洲令人窒息的大都市。再生能源提供一條的途徑，使電力更低廉、在家產生，且是工業領域就業和創新的來源。煤炭氣數已盡，愈早走入博物館和史書，愈好。 ■
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