萊辛頓--共和黨人面臨在川普與現實之間做選擇

 

Lexington 萊辛頓

Republicans face a choice between Donald Trump and reality 共和黨人面臨在川普與現實之間做選擇

Most of the party’s voters still revere him, in part because they do not believe he was defeated 

該黨大多數選民仍崇拜他，部分原因是他們不相信他敗選了。

United States

Jan 30th 2021 edition

THIS IS AN awkward moment for the QAnon conspiracists who put their considerable faith in Donald Trump. Inauguration Day came and went with no mass execution of Satanist Democratic paedophiles. The Storm, as a million-odd QAnon followers called that wished-for event, was a shower. So there was no Great Awakening—a post-slaughter celebration of Mr Trump—either. “No plan, no Q, nothing,” grumbled one follower, referring to the conspiracy’s shadowy prophet, an imagined Trump aide, on the Telegram messaging platform to which the group has flocked.

對QAnon陰謀論者來說，這是個尷尬的時刻，他們對川普充滿信心。就職日那天來了又過了，不見大規模處決崇拜撒旦的民主黨戀童癖者。 數以萬計的QAnon追隨者殷殷期盼的「風暴」只是一場小陣雨。因此，也沒有發生「大覺醒」--川普屠殺後的慶典。「沒有計劃，沒有Q，什麼都沒有。」一名追隨者抱怨，提及陰謀幕後先知，他自認是川普的助手，在電報消息平台上成群結黨。

That followed its expulsion from Twitter and Facebook, after QAnon conspiracists helped lead the assault on Capitol Hill. The companies have since blocked the accounts of tens of thousands; the FBI has arrested some of the alleged insurrectionists, including Jacob Chansley, the “QAnon shaman”. One of the conspiracy’s architects, Ron Watkins, a Japan-based conspiracy theorist who administered the now-defunct 8chan website on which “Q”’s cryptic messages were posted, says the game is up. “We gave it our all,” he wrote on Telegram, in an un-millenarian fashion. He and his father, an air-force veteran and former pornographer who once ran a pig-farm outside Manila, are thought by some researchers to have written the cryptic messages from “Q” that fuelled the conspiracy.

在QAnon陰謀論者協助領導襲擊國會山莊後，追隨者被逐出推特和臉書，這些公司封鎖數以萬計的帳戶。聯邦調查局逮捕一些涉嫌叛亂分子，包括「QAnon巫師」錢斯利（Jacob Chansley）、 住日本的陰謀論主謀之一沃特金斯（Ron Watkins），他曾管理現已解散、張貼Q的神祕訊息的8chan網站，他以非千禧世代的語調在Telegram寫道，事跡已敗露，我們已盡全力了。日本陰謀理論家沃特金斯（Ron Watkins），他曾管理現已解散、張貼Q的神祕訊息的8chan網站，他以非千禧世代式的時尚在Telegram寫道，遊戲已經啟動，我們全力以赴。一些研究人員認為，助長陰謀論、來自Ｑ的神祕信息，執筆者就是他和他的父親，一位空軍老兵、前A片製作人，也曾在馬尼拉郊外經營過養豬場。他和他的父親是空軍老兵及A片製造商，曾在馬尼拉郊外經營過養豬場。研究人員認為，他們所寫來自Ｑ的神祕信息，助長了陰謀論。

An even more successful conspiracist, Alex Jones of Infowars, has also turned on the nonsense he once helped spread: ridiculing QAnon as a bunch of “witches and warlocks”. But QAnon is not going away. Updated versions of it are spreading—including one on TikTok that has pushed the Storm back to March 4th. And the conspiratorial impulse behind QAnon will be even more enduring. Fully half of Mr Trump’s supporters claimed to believe its core falsehoods: that he was fighting a high-level Democratic child-sex operation. As that suggests, the conspiracy is not only dangerous in itself, but both symptom and cause of the bigger epistemic and democratic crisis that Mr Trump has moved from the murkier parts of the internet to the Republican mainstream.

甚至更成功的陰謀論者，《資訊戰》的瓊斯（Alex Jones）對他曾幫助散布的謬論轉變態度：嘲笑QAnon為一群「巫婆和術士」。但是QAnon並沒有消失，新版本正在傳播，包括TikTok上其中一個版本，將「風暴」推遲至3月4日。而且QAnon背後的陰謀衝動更持久。川普的支持者中，有半數人聲稱相信核心謊言：川普力抗高階民主黨兒童性行為行動。川普正為兒童性行為行動與一個高級民主黨員鬥爭。這顯示，此陰謀不僅本身是危險的，也是更大的認知及民主危機的病徵與病因：川普把網路上陰暗角落的陰謀論，搬移到共和黨主流。根據暗示，此陰謀不僅本身是危險的，而且是更大的認知和民主危機徵兆，也是川普從網路上的陰暗領域，轉移到共和黨主流的原因。

America has a rich history of conspiracism, due to its anti-government, apocalyptic religious and entrepreneurial traditions. Pat Robertson, a 90-year-old televangelist and former Republican presidential candidate, illustrated the last two when he predicted Mr Trump would “without question” win re-election and preside over a period “of great peace”, before the probable end of the world in 2025. After Mr Trump refused to accept his defeat, Mr Robertson accused the then president of living in an “alternate reality”.

由於反政府、世界末日預言的宗教和企業家傳統，美國具有豐富的陰謀論歷史。闡述後兩點的是羅伯遜（Pat Robertson），一位90歲的電視佈道家和前共和黨總統候選人，他預言川普將「毫無疑問」贏得連任，並帶領「太平盛世」至2025年可能發生的世界末日。在川普拒絕接受敗選後，羅伯遜指責這位當時的總統活在「平行世界」。

羅伯遜（Pat Robertson）是一位90歲的電視宣傳家和前共和黨總統候選人，他給出最後兩個預言，他預測川普將「毫無疑問」贏得連任，並帶領「太平盛世」至2025年可能發生的世界末日。在川普拒絕接受敗選後，羅伯遜指責當時的總統活在「平行世界」。

The left also has bunk theories, often involving predatory bankers, and sometimes pushed by Michael Moore or Oliver Stone. Yet the paranoid style in American politics has been most pronounced on the right. During the red scares of the 1950s and 60s, led by Joseph McCarthy and the John Birch Society, it almost subsumed it. And the past two decades have witnessed an even bigger explosion of right-wing confabulation: fuelled by the anti-empiricism of the Republican elite, the grievance politics of its base and new opportunities to spin the climate-change denialism, Benghazi trutherism and end-of-days frenzies that have ensued.

左派也有鬼扯的理論，通常涉及掠奪性銀行家，有時由導演摩爾或史東推動。然而，美國政治中妄想型風格在右派最為明顯。 在1950和1960年代由麥卡錫（Joseph McCarthy）和約翰·博齊協會（John Birch Society）主導的的紅色恐慌時期，右派幾乎把它內化了。在麥卡錫（Joseph McCarthy）和約翰·博齊協會（John Birch Society）領導的1950年代和60年代的紅色恐慌中，它幾乎被歸為一類。過去二十年來見證，右翼虛構情節更是大爆發，驅動力包括：共和黨菁英的反經驗主義、基本盤的受害政治觀、有新的機會杜撰氣候變遷否定主義、班加西真相主義，以及隨之而來的末日狂潮。過去二十年來見證，右翼虛構情節的影響更大：在反經驗主義的共和黨精英加油添醋下，奠定了受害政治的基礎，以及新機會來扭轉氣候變遷否定主義者，班加西真相主義和末日狂潮隨之而來。

Infowars, on which Mr Jones spends three-quarters of his time spinning anti-government falsehoods and the rest hawking quack supplements, such as Super Male Vitality, to steel his listeners for the coming civil war, has over 12m visits to its website a month. Fox News, where this week Tucker Carlson attacked the crackdown on QAnon as government mind-control, has millions more viewers. Such truth-bending was one of the enabling conditions for Mr Trump, who appeared on Mr Jones’s show and echoed many of his talking-points during his 2016 primary campaign. Yet the former president, an unfeigned conspiracist, did not only amplify the rise of right-wing conspiracism; he also transformed it.

《資訊戰》的瓊斯耗近四分之三的時間來扭轉反政府的假消息，其餘的時間用來兜售庸醫補充劑，例如重振雄風營養品，吸引聽眾為即將來臨的內戰做準備，網站每月有超過1,200萬的訪問數。卡森（Tucker Carlson）本周在福斯新聞（Fox News）抨擊QAnon鎮壓事件是政府控制人民思想，觀眾增加數百萬人。本周福斯新聞（Fox News）卡森（Tucker Carlson）抨擊QAnon鎮壓事件，因為政府控制人民思想，節目吸引數百萬觀眾。這種扭曲真相是川普的賦能條件。川普出現在瓊斯的節目，並回應他在2016年初選中的許多觀點。然而，這位前總統是個由衷的陰謀論者，不僅擴大右翼陰謀論的興起，也改變了它。

A genuinely prophetic book by the political scientists Russell Muirhead and Nancy Rosenblum, published in 2019 when QAnon was still in its infancy, describes Mr Trump’s conspiracy theories as a political step-change. Past conspiracies typically sought to explain a genuinely surprising occurrence, such as the ability of a lone gunman to assassinate the most protected man alive. They have also tended to flourish among the powerless. Mr Trump has promoted conspiracies, from Trump Tower and the Oval Office, only to demonise and invalidate his opponents, including the democratic system itself. Thus, his claim that Barack Obama was born in Africa; his attacks on “fake news” and whatever “Deep State” agency or dutiful public servant impeded him; and his electoral-fraud delusion. The QAnon conspiracy, which Mr Trump directly promoted, was essentially an effort by his supporters to write these fabrications into a single narrative.

政治學者繆海德（Russell Muirhead）和羅森布拉姆（Nancy Rosenblum）在2019年出版的一本真正的預言書，當時QAnon仍處於嬰兒期，將川普的陰謀論描述為政治的大躍進。昔日的陰謀論通常試圖解釋真正令人驚訝的事件，例如單槍匹馬的槍手，如何能暗殺世上最受保護的人。陰謀論也傾向在弱勢者之間傳得沸沸揚揚。川普從川普大廈和總統橢圓形辦公室提倡陰謀論，只是為了妖魔化、閹割他的政敵，其中包括民主制度本身。因此，他聲稱歐巴馬（Barack Obama）出生於非洲；他抨擊「假新聞」和「深層政府」機構，即妨礙他的盡職公務員；以及他的選舉欺詐妄想。

過去的陰謀通常試圖解釋一個真正令人驚訝的事件，例如一個孤獨的槍手暗殺最受保護的人後存活的能力。他們也傾向從無能為力中蓬勃發展。川普從川普大廈和總統橢圓形辦公室提倡陰謀，只是為了妖魔化並證明對手及民主制度本身的錯誤。因此，他聲稱歐巴馬（Barack Obama）出生於非洲。他對「假新聞」以及任何「深層國家」機構或盡職的公務員的攻擊阻止他，和他的選舉欺詐妄想。川普直接提倡的QAnon陰謀論，實質上是他的支持者將這些莫須有寫成單一敘述的努力。

For Mr Muirhead and Ms Rosenblum, Mr Trump’s conspiracism amounts to a blueprint for political success in a post-truth world, which imitators will probably follow. It is hard to disagree. Mr Trump’s fortunes are a triumph of delusion over political gravity. Despite leading his party to defeat, its leaders may be about to absolve him for inciting an insurrection intended to overturn that defeat, because most of the party’s voters still revere him, in part because they do not believe he was defeated.

對於繆海德和羅森布拉姆而言，川普的陰謀論意味著後真相世界政治成功的藍圖，效仿者可能跟進。難以否認地，川普的機運是一場妄想壓倒政治重力的勝利。儘管他引領所屬政黨步入敗途，並意圖推翻敗選事實而煽動叛亂，但共和黨領導人可能即將宣判他無罪，因為該黨多數選民仍然崇拜他，部分原因是他們不相信他被擊敗。

川普的命運是對政治嚴重性幻想的勝利。儘管他領導政黨失敗了，但領導人可能因意圖推翻失敗的叛亂而赦免他，因為該黨多數選民仍然崇拜他，部分原因是他們不相信他被擊敗。

It is a stunning achievement, albeit decades in the making. And the longstanding structural weaknesses Mr Trump has exploited, including the grievance politics Mr Carlson pushes, the erosion of established media, the anarchy of the internet, will endure. Twitter’s crackdown on QAnon is of little consequence by comparison.

儘管已醞釀了數十年，這項成就仍令人震驚。川普利用的多項長期結構性弱點，包括卡爾森所推動的受害政治、老牌媒體公信力式微、網路無政府狀態，都將持續。

儘管已有數十年的歷史，但這項成就仍令人震驚。川普利用的長期結構性弱點，包括卡爾森所推動的受害政治--老牌媒體的侵蝕，網路無政府狀態將持續。相比下，推特對QAnon的鎮壓幾乎沒有影響。

Back to life, back to reality 回到生活，回到現實

The fight for American democracy cannot be won by companies—or election officials or judges. It will be decided by Republican politicians, who now have an opportunity to reset the terms of battle. Democracy thrives as a contest of ideas; it muddles through as a war of interests. But without the shared reality that was the single main target of Mr Trump’s attacks, it cannot function.■

這場為美國民主而戰之役，無法靠公司、靠民選官員、或靠法官而獲勝。這將取決於共和黨政治人物，他們現在有機會重設戰鬥條件。民主在思想競賽中茁壯；民主從利益鬥爭渾水涉水而出。但是，如果對什麼是事實沒有共同的看法，民主就無法運作，而這正是川普攻擊的主要目標。■

美國民主的戰鬥無法靠公司或選舉官員或法官獲勝，這將取決於共和黨政治人物，他們現在有機會重設戰鬥條件。民主在思想競賽中茁壯，卻被混淆成一場利益戰爭。但是，如果沒有共同的現實做為單一主要目標，並承受川普攻擊，它就無法發揮作用。■

reference:

https://lithub.com/why-conspiracy-theories-are-more-dangerous-than-ever/

自由但受夠了--儘管民主，突尼西亞人依然暴動

 

Free but fed up 自由但受夠了

Despite democracy, Tunisians riot

儘管民主，突尼西亞人依然暴動

Ten years after the Arab spring, jobs are still scarce

阿拉伯之春之後十年，工作仍然稀少

BY DAY THE streets are quiet, the cafés full of unemployed men. At night, though, groups of young people have fought running battles with police during a week of protests and riots in several Tunisian cities that started on January 15th. Local media portray them as looters and vandals; more than 600 have been arrested, and the army has been deployed to restore order. But other Tunisians are more sympathetic. In Ettadhamen, a working-class suburb of the capital, Tunis, residents decry the joblessness and despair that periodically cause eruptions of anger. “They always want to depict protesters as troublemakers,” says 37-year-old Ahmed (who declined to give his full name). “They never want to say they’re protesting over living conditions.”

白天街道很安靜，咖啡館充滿著失業的男人。但到了晚上，一群年輕人與警察爭執不下。自1月15日這一周來，突尼西亞多個城區爆發示威和騷亂，當地媒體將他們刻畫成為強盜和暴民，超過600人被逮補，軍隊進駐以恢復秩序。但是其他突尼西亞人更贊同抗議民眾。在首都突尼斯市郊的埃塔哈默（Ettadhamen）住著工人階級，居民譴責失業和絕望情緒，導致憤怒周期性地爆發。 「他們總是想將抗議者描繪成麻煩製造者」37歲的艾哈邁德（他拒絕提供全名）說， 「他們永遠不想說，他們是為生活條件而抗議。」

This month’s unrest began almost ten years to the day after Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia’s dictator from 1987 to 2011, stepped down amid a popular uprising. Since then Tunisia has become a democracy, with fair elections and political freedoms. In economic terms, though, it has been a disappointing decade. Annual growth averaged just 1.8% from 2011 to 2019. Last year the economy shrank by between 7% and 9% as covid-19 forced long lockdowns and clobbered the vital tourism sector. Unemployment is stubbornly high at 16% overall, and 36% for young people. The Tunisian dinar has lost 47% of its value.

本月的動盪幾乎從十年前，突尼西亞1987至2011年獨裁統治者本阿里（Zine El Abidine Ben Ali）在人民起義後下台，就展開至今。從那時起，突尼西亞成為民主國家，擁有公正的選舉和政治自由。但從經濟角度來看，這是令人失望的十年。從2011年到2019年平均成長率僅1.8％。由於新冠疫情迫使長期封鎖並打擊重要的旅遊業，去年經濟萎縮7％至9％。失業率居高不下，總體為16％，年輕人為36％。突尼西亞貨幣第納爾貶值47％。

Successive governments—there have been nine prime ministers since the revolution—have seemed powerless to jump-start the economy. In part that reflects the messy nature of politics in a fragile democracy. Long-running disputes between Islamist and secularist factions make it hard to get much done. Powerful labour unions fought efforts to trim a bloated public sector. And, in contrast to decades past, public opinion now matters. In 2018 a string of tax increases sparked a week of protests, some violent. “The people want the fall of the regime,” chant some of the protesters today, echoing calls made ten years ago.

繼任政府自革命後歷經九位總理，似乎皆無能為力推動經濟發展。部分反映脆弱民主政治的混亂本質。伊斯蘭教派與世俗派系間的長期爭執，使得許多事情很難完成。強大的工會抵抗裁減浮腫公共部門的努力。且與過去的幾十年相比，現在輿論很重要。2018年一連串的增稅引發為期一周的抗議活動，有些是暴力的。如今某些抗議者反覆唸誦「人民希望政權垮台」，回響著十年前呼聲。

Small in size, bordered by war-torn Libya and stagnant Algeria, Tunisia has struggled to find avenues for growth. The cash-strapped government cannot afford much spending on development or welfare. Public debt has soared from 43% of GDP in 2011 to a projected 89% this year. The IMF estimates that Tunisia budgeted just 1.8% of GDP to support individuals and firms during the pandemic (the global average is 5.9%). To cover a widening deficit, the government may have to seek another loan from the IMF, which could necessitate painful austerity measures. It received a $745m loan from the IMF in April to deal with the pandemic, but that has run out.

突尼西亞的國土面積小，毗鄰飽經戰亂的利比亞和經濟停滯不前的阿爾及利亞，但突尼西亞一直拚命尋找成長的途徑。資金拮据的政府負擔不起發展或福利的大量支出。公共債務已從2011年占GDP的43％，激增至今年預估的89％。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）估計，突尼西亞在疫情期間僅將GDP的1.8％用於扶持個人和公司（全球平均水平為5.9％）。 為彌補不斷擴大的赤字缺口，政府可能不得不向IMF尋求另一筆貸款，這可能需要採取痛苦的撙節措施。它在4月從IMF獲得7.45億美元貸款來應付疫情，但是已經用光。

Some young people see no choice but to leave. The country’s economic malaise has fuelled a rise in risky forms of emigration. Last year 12,776 Tunisians crossed the Mediterranean to Europe, up from 3,900 in 2019. They made up the largest single group of migrants crossing the sea, about 20% of the total. For many, the hopes of ten years ago have given way to a depressing present: proud they may be of their country’s political progress, but pride alone is not enough to persuade them to stay at home. ■

有些年輕人別無選擇地離開。突尼西亞的經濟萎靡不振，為鋌而走險移民增加火上澆油。突尼西亞人橫渡地中海到歐洲，從2019年3,900名增至去年的12,776名。他們構成最大的一群跨海移民，約占總數20％。對許多人來說，十年前的希望已被當下的沮喪取代：他們可能為自己國家的政治進步感到自豪，但單憑自豪還不足以說服他們留在家鄉。 ■

困難重重的功課--為什麼在少數族群的街區很難重啟學校？

 

Obstacle coursework 困難重重的功課

Why reopening schools in minority neighbourhoods is hard

為什麼在少數族群的街區很難重啟學校？

The children who have suffered most from closed schools will be last to go back

學校封閉時折磨最多的孩子將最後返校

Closing public-school buildings during the covid-19 epidemic has had clear academic consequences. McKinsey, a consultancy, reckons pupils are likely to lose between five and nine months of learning on average by the end of this school year. Non-white students, the study reckons, will be six to 12 months behind. Many people, including President Joe Biden, want children to return to the classroom. However, the pupils who have experienced the greatest learning loss will probably be the last to return.

新冠病毒流行期間，關閉公立學校對學術產生明顯的影響。顧問公司麥肯錫（McKinsey）估計，至本學年結束，學生平均可能會失去五到九個月的學習時間。研究認為，非白人學生將落後六至12個月。許多人包括總統拜登在內都希望孩子們回到教室。但是，經歷學習損失最大的學生可能將最後返校。

According to the Understanding America Study at the University of Southern California, 68% of white parents want their children to return to school this academic year. However, only 36% of black parents and 50% of Hispanic parents feel the same way. Much of this difference stems from systemic problems existing before the pandemic which, if left unresolved, could expose black and Hispanic pupils to covid-19 at higher rates than their white peers.

根據南加州大學的《了解美國研究》，68％的白人家長希望他們的孩子在本學年返校，但只有36％的黑人家長和50％的拉丁裔家長頗有同感。這個差別多半源自於疫情前就存在的系統性問題，若是放任不解決，可能造成黑人和拉丁裔學生對新冠肺炎的曝險率高於白人同儕。

Black and Hispanic Americans have many reasons to be even more afraid of covid-19 than white families. According to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, they are four times more likely to be hospitalised as a result of the virus and three times more likely to die than white Americans are.

黑人和拉丁裔美國人比白人家庭有許多理由更懼怕新冠病毒。根據疾病預防控制中心的數據，他們染疫住院的可能性是美國白人的四倍，且死亡的可能性為三倍。

This fear is compounded by lingering distrust of the medical system, resulting from past mistreatment of racial minorities and present-day discrimination. Alia McCants, a black parent in a suburb of New York City, says her decision-making was influenced by the “disproportionate impact” of covid-19 on her community. “I am much more cautious about exposure to the coronavirus because I know that the likelihood...that we would get the excellent care that a white family of similar means might get is less because we’re black.” Ms McCants and her husband decided to send their children to school in person in September, but reverted to remote learning when case rates began to rise in December.

加深這種恐懼的是對醫療體系揮之不去的不信任，肇因於少數族裔昔日遭受的不公平對待，以及延續至今的歧視。紐約市郊一位黑人家長麥坎茨（Alia McCants）說，新冠肺炎對她社區造成「不成比例的衝擊」，影響了她的決定。「我對暴露於冠狀病毒風險更小心翼翼，因為我知道，我們較不可能取得同等財力白人家庭可能受到的那種細心照護，因為我們是黑人。」麥坎茨和她的丈夫決定在9月親自送孩子上學，但是當確診率在12月開始增加時，又恢復遠距學習。

As well as these concerns, many racial-minority families must contend with schools that have fewer resources to deal with the virus. Black and Hispanic pupils are more likely to attend low-income schools than their white peers. American schools are supported through a combination of federal, state, and local funding. Higher-income communities can typically raise more money per pupil through local property taxes.

除了這些擔憂，許多少數種族家庭還須應付較少防疫資源的學校。黑人和拉丁裔學生比白人同濟更可能進入低收入學校。美國學校透過聯邦、州和地方的資助支持。高收入社區通常可以透過地方財產稅，為每個學生籌集更多資金。

Partly as a result of these funding disparities even before the pandemic, poor schools struggled with overcrowded facilities that lacked proper ventilation for sometimes windowless classrooms. Some teachers struggled to get hold of basic materials such as paper and pencils, with many resorting to their own money and fundraising websites like donorschoose.org to get the supplies they needed.

一部分是因為這些甚至在疫病流行前就存在的資金懸殊，導致窮校勉強以有限設施容納眾多學生，有時教室沒有窗戶，通風不良。一些老師費力去張羅如紙和鉛筆之類的基本材料，其中許多仰賴自己的錢及募款網站如donorschoose.org來獲得所需的物資。

The epidemic has made these problems more urgent. According to the Learning Policy Institute, a think-tank, 10m pupils and 1m public school employees face heightened exposure to covid-19 as a result of defunct ventilation systems in public schools. Elizabeth Ramos, a teacher and union representative at Public School 72 in the Bronx, describes cold New York winter days when teachers and elementary pupils needed to keep windows open and wear coats to ensure adequate ventilation.

流行病使這些問題更加緊迫。根據智庫LPI（Learning Policy Institute）稱，由於公立學校通風系統不管用，1,000萬學生和100萬公立教職員工面臨高度暴露在新冠病毒的風險。布朗克斯公立學校教師拉莫斯（Elizabeth Ramos）和72名工會代表描述紐約寒冬，教師和小學生需要維持窗戶敞開並穿上大衣，以確保充足的通風。

Fortunately, two covid-19 relief packages have provided additional funding for public schools: $13bn disbursed in spring 2020, and $54bn distributed in early January. Michael Griffith of the Learning Policy Institute says this additional funding will cover short-term pandemic needs, such as cleaning supplies and remote-learning technology, but not the long-term needs that have also been exposed. He estimates that schools will need an additional $110bn or so from the federal government to address learning loss: $75bn to pay for extra school days and $36bn for small-group tutoring. He also estimates that schools will need an additional $72bn to repair ventilation systems. Mr Biden has recognised this need, pledging $130bn to support schools.

幸運的是，兩次的新冠紓困方案為公立學校提供額外的資金：2020年春季撥款130億美元，今年1月初分配540億美元。LPI的格里菲斯（Michael Griffith）表示，這筆額外的資金將用於填補短期疫病流行的需求，例如清潔用品和遠距教學設備，但不能滿足長期的需求。他估計，學校將需要從聯邦政府額外的1,100億美元左右來彌補學習損失：750億美元用於支付額外的上課日，360億美元用於小規模的家教。他還估計，學校將需要額外的720億美元來維修通風系統。拜登已經意識到此需求，承諾提供1,300億美元支持學校。

Future measures may also have to account for state revenue lost because of the virus. Kenneth Shores of the University of Delaware points to lessons from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the bill passed in 2009 which included $100bn for education. The bill worked well for the first two years by providing schools with one federal dollar for every dollar lost in the recession. However, after that, the federal government “didn’t have the political willpower or support to keep funding going”, says Mr Shores. This occurred even though 29 states needed more than six years to recover to pre-recession funding levels, according to the Centre on Budget and Policy Priorities, a think-tank. As a result, school budgets were cut and pupils’ test scores fell.

未來的措施可能還必須考慮到，因為病毒而造成各州的稅收損失。德拉瓦大學的修爾斯（Kenneth Shores）指出《美國復甦與再投資》法案的教訓，該法案於2009年通過，內含1,000億美元的教育經費。這項法案前兩年運作良好，學校在經濟衰退期間每損失1美元，聯邦政府就會提供1美元的補助款。不過，修爾斯說，在那之後，聯邦政府「沒有政治意願或支持資助下去」。據智庫預算與政策優先中心稱，即使有29個州需要六年以上的時間才能恢復到衰退前的資金水準，這種情況仍然發生。結果學校預算削減，學生的考試成績也降低。

Throughout the country schools are facing dips in pupil enrolment, which means a significant number of children may have dropped out. Mr Biden has promised to reopen most schools, from kindergarten to 8th grade (ages 12-13), within his first 100 days in office. But this plan must consider the worries of families and teachers, or teachers and pupils may not return. When Chicago public schools partially reopened on January 4th, less than half the teachers required to be there showed up. And the city teachers’ union is threatening to strike. ■

美國各地學校的入學率都面臨下降，這意味著可能有大量的孩子輟學。拜登已承諾在任職首個百日內重新開放大多數學校，從幼稚園到八年級（12至13歲）。但是此計劃須考慮到家庭和老師的顧慮，否則老師和學生可能不會回來。 1月4日芝加哥公立學校部分重新開放時，不到半數的老師出席，且芝加哥教師工會威脅要罷工。 ■

線上百科全書--生日快樂 維基百科

 

Online encyclopedias 線上百科全書

Happy Birthday, Wikipedia 生日快樂，維基百科

Lessons from the success of a different sort of tech titan

另類科技巨頭的成功啟示錄

Leaders

Jan 9th 2021 edition

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WIKIPEDIA IS CLEAR on the matter: Wikipedia is not a reliable source. Yet on this particular question, few people seem to agree with the world’s most popular encyclopedia. The site approaches its 20th birthday, on January 15th, as the 13th-most-visited place on the web, offering more than 55m articles written in 300 languages. Worries about fake news, filter bubbles and market power have soured public opinion on the Utopian promises of the early internet. But Wikipedia—written by amateurs, freely available to all—stands as the great exception. It is the dream that worked.

維基百科對此事立場明確：它不是可靠的資訊來源。在特定問題上，似乎很少有人同意世界上最受歡迎的百科全書。該網站將於1月15日迎來20歲生日，作為訪問人數第132名的網站，它提供5,500萬種使用300種語言編寫的文章。在假新聞、篩檢程式泡泡和市場力量的擔憂下，公眾對早期網路烏托邦式承諾的看法惡化。但是，由業餘愛好者編寫並向所有人免費提供的維基百科是個例外。這個夢想實現了。

Or at least, mostly worked. Wikipedia’s crowdsourced model remains vulnerable to the occasional hoaxer or chancer. In August it emerged that many articles on the Scots version of the site had been written by an American editor who, by his own admission, was not really a speaker of the dialect. Nor is it free from honest mistakes. That can cause problems: for better or worse, powerful platforms from social-media firms to the World Health Organisation have come to treat it as a wellspring of truth online. All the same, the world is much better off for its existence.

或至少，大部分實現了。維基百科的眾包模式仍偶爾易受惡作劇或騙子攻擊。8月曾傳出一位美國編輯在蘇格蘭版維基百科撰寫許多文章，他本人承認不是真正蘇格蘭母語者，也並非沒有誠實上的錯誤。這可能會引起問題：無論好壞，從社群媒體到世界衛生組織等強大平台都將維基百科視為線上真理的源頭。同時，世界因為它的存在而更加美好。

Indeed, familiarity may have dulled the scale of its achievements. As well as being roughly as accurate as old-style encyclopedias, Wikipedia is also incomparably broader. Curious readers can learn about worthy subjects like Homer, general relativity or the Taiping Rebellion. They can also read about Québécois slang, the nature of magic in the “Harry Potter” novels and the fortunes of Yeovil Town Football Club, which toils in obscurity in the fifth tier of the English league. Denis Diderot, the 18th-century editor of the French Encyclopédie, hoped to “assemble all the knowledge scattered over the face of the Earth”. Wikipedia would have delighted him.

的確， 平易近人或許令人低估它成就有多大。但維基百科不僅與舊版百科全書一樣準確，且廣博的程度無人匹敵。好奇的讀者可以學到有價值的主題像是荷馬、廣義相對論或太平天國叛亂等。他們還可以讀到魁北克語、「哈利波特」小說中的魔法性質以及約維爾足球俱樂部的命運--他們在英格蘭全國性聯賽中默默無聞。18世紀的法國百科全書編輯狄德羅（Denis Diderot）希望「收集散布在地表上所有的知識」。維基百科將能取悅他。

The project owes much of its success to its unique structure. Funded by donations, Wikipedia earns no profits. It has no venture-capital backers demanding growth at all costs. Without advertisers to satisfy, it can focus exclusively on the interests of its readers and contributors. It is curated and run by people, not machines. There is no recommendation algorithm humming away in the background, choosing what to show readers in order to keep them glued to the site for as long as possible.

這項成就很大程度上歸功於其獨特結構--由捐贈者資助。維基百科沒有任何利潤，沒有風險投資的贊助者不惜一切代價地要求成長，不用滿足廣告商，可以只專注於讀者和捐助者的利益。它由人管理，而非機器，沒有推薦演算法在後台運轉、選擇展示的內容使讀者盡可能長時間地黏在網站上。

Other tech titans should study its success. Relying on algorithms is one reason they have achieved enormous scale with so few employees. Yet the downsides have begun to haunt them. As the social-media giants hire ever more people as moderators, and write ever longer sets of rules about what is allowed, Wikipedia offers a lesson in how to run a human-powered website.

其他科技巨擘應研究這樣的成功模式，依賴演算法是他們只用少數員工卻取得巨大規模的原因之一。然而，不利因素已開始纏繞他們。隨著社群媒體巨頭雇用更多人力審核，並就允許內容編寫更多的規則，維基百科提供有關如何運行人力網站的典範。

It is also a welcome boost for Enlightenment values, which have suffered at the hands of populism and authoritarian capitalism. If Wikipedia’s occasional scandals make people approach it with a little scepticism, all the better, for fair-minded scepticism is a healthy attitude in general. Wikipedia sees itself as a work in progress. If a fact is wrong, it invites users to persuade others so that it can be corrected. Its internal culture holds that knowledge comes from evidence, reason and good-faith debate, not pronouncements from the pulpit or the party.

這也是啟蒙價值觀所樂見的進展，啟蒙價值觀在民粹主義和專制資本主義的手中受挫。如果維基百科偶爾發生的醜聞，使人們對它抱持一點懷疑，那就更好了，因為公正的懷疑通常是一種健康的態度。維基百科將自己視為進展中的工作。如果事實是錯誤的，它會邀請用戶說服他人，因此它可被更正。它的內部文化認為，知識來自證據、理性和善意辯論，不是來自講台或政黨的聲明。

Like any institution, Wikipedia has flaws. It sometimes fails to live up to its own ideals. The nature of crowdsourcing means its quality varies. The most popular articles receive the most scrutiny, and tend to be the best. That leaves a long tail of obscure entries of lower quality. Articles can be overlong, or too technical. Much of its magic comes from the distinctive culture that has built up among contributors—but cultures can be fragile.

像任何機構一樣，維基百科也有缺陷。它有時無法實現自己的理想。眾包的性質意味著質量參差不齊。最受歡迎的文章受到最嚴格的審查，往往也是最好的。這留下了質量低下的晦澀條目，文章可能太長，也可能太技術性。大部分的奧妙來自於貢獻者之間建立的獨特文化，但文化可能不堪一擊。

Perhaps its biggest flaw is that, for all its breadth, it is still too narrow. The site’s editors are mostly male, and mostly from North America and Europe. A small number do a disproportionate share of the work. That colours both the encyclopedia’s choice of entries and the way it covers them. Wikipedians have been trying to change that, but progress has been too slow. A lot is at stake. In rich, liberal countries, where information is widely available, Wikipedia is a convenience. In poorer places, and illiberal ones, it can be quietly revolutionary. ■

縱然已盡可能廣博，也許它最大的缺陷仍然是太過狹隘。該網站的編輯主要是男性，且主要來自北美和歐洲。少數人承擔了不成比例的工作。這使百科全書詞條的選擇及其報導方式染上偏見色彩。維基百科一直在試圖改變這種狀況，但進展太慢。這帶來許多風險，在資訊隨處可得的富裕、自由國家，維基百科是一種便利。在較貧窮和不開明的地方，這可能是場安靜的革命。 ■