Lexington 萊辛頓
Republicans face a choice between Donald Trump and reality 共和黨人面臨在川普與現實之間做選擇
Most of the party’s voters still revere him, in part because they do not believe he was defeated
該黨大多數選民仍崇拜他，部分原因是他們不相信他敗選了。
THIS IS AN awkward moment for the QAnon conspiracists who put their considerable faith in Donald Trump. Inauguration Day came and went with no mass execution of Satanist Democratic paedophiles. The Storm, as a million-odd QAnon followers called that wished-for event, was a shower. So there was no Great Awakening—a post-slaughter celebration of Mr Trump—either. “No plan, no Q, nothing,” grumbled one follower, referring to the conspiracy’s shadowy prophet, an imagined Trump aide, on the Telegram messaging platform to which the group has flocked.
對QAnon陰謀論者來說，這是個尷尬的時刻，他們對川普充滿信心。就職日那天來了又過了，不見大規模處決崇拜撒旦的民主黨戀童癖者。 數以萬計的QAnon追隨者殷殷期盼的「風暴」只是一場小陣雨。因此，也沒有發生「大覺醒」--川普屠殺後的慶典。「沒有計劃，沒有Q，什麼都沒有。」一名追隨者抱怨，提及陰謀幕後先知，他自認是川普的助手，在電報消息平台上成群結黨。
That followed its expulsion from Twitter and Facebook, after QAnon conspiracists helped lead the assault on Capitol Hill. The companies have since blocked the accounts of tens of thousands; the FBI has arrested some of the alleged insurrectionists, including Jacob Chansley, the “QAnon shaman”. One of the conspiracy’s architects, Ron Watkins, a Japan-based conspiracy theorist who administered the now-defunct 8chan website on which “Q”’s cryptic messages were posted, says the game is up. “We gave it our all,” he wrote on Telegram, in an un-millenarian fashion. He and his father, an air-force veteran and former pornographer who once ran a pig-farm outside Manila, are thought by some researchers to have written the cryptic messages from “Q” that fuelled the conspiracy.
在QAnon陰謀論者協助領導襲擊國會山莊後，追隨者被逐出推特和臉書，這些公司封鎖數以萬計的帳戶。聯邦調查局逮捕一些涉嫌叛亂分子，包括「QAnon巫師」錢斯利（Jacob Chansley）、 住日本的陰謀論主謀之一沃特金斯（Ron Watkins），他曾管理現已解散、張貼Q的神祕訊息的8chan網站，他以非千禧世代的語調在Telegram寫道，事跡已敗露，我們已盡全力了。日本陰謀理論家沃特金斯（Ron Watkins），他曾管理現已解散、張貼Q的神祕訊息的8chan網站，他以非千禧世代式的時尚在Telegram寫道，遊戲已經啟動，我們全力以赴。一些研究人員認為，助長陰謀論、來自Ｑ的神祕信息，執筆者就是他和他的父親，一位空軍老兵、前A片製作人，也曾在馬尼拉郊外經營過養豬場。他和他的父親是空軍老兵及A片製造商，曾在馬尼拉郊外經營過養豬場。研究人員認為，他們所寫來自Ｑ的神祕信息，助長了陰謀論。
An even more successful conspiracist, Alex Jones of Infowars, has also turned on the nonsense he once helped spread: ridiculing QAnon as a bunch of “witches and warlocks”. But QAnon is not going away. Updated versions of it are spreading—including one on TikTok that has pushed the Storm back to March 4th. And the conspiratorial impulse behind QAnon will be even more enduring. Fully half of Mr Trump’s supporters claimed to believe its core falsehoods: that he was fighting a high-level Democratic child-sex operation. As that suggests, the conspiracy is not only dangerous in itself, but both symptom and cause of the bigger epistemic and democratic crisis that Mr Trump has moved from the murkier parts of the internet to the Republican mainstream.
甚至更成功的陰謀論者，《資訊戰》的瓊斯（Alex Jones）對他曾幫助散布的謬論轉變態度：嘲笑QAnon為一群「巫婆和術士」。但是QAnon並沒有消失，新版本正在傳播，包括TikTok上其中一個版本，將「風暴」推遲至3月4日。而且QAnon背後的陰謀衝動更持久。川普的支持者中，有半數人聲稱相信核心謊言：川普力抗高階民主黨兒童性行為行動。川普正為兒童性行為行動與一個高級民主黨員鬥爭。這顯示，此陰謀不僅本身是危險的，也是更大的認知及民主危機的病徵與病因：川普把網路上陰暗角落的陰謀論，搬移到共和黨主流。根據暗示，此陰謀不僅本身是危險的，而且是更大的認知和民主危機徵兆，也是川普從網路上的陰暗領域，轉移到共和黨主流的原因。
America has a rich history of conspiracism, due to its anti-government, apocalyptic religious and entrepreneurial traditions. Pat Robertson, a 90-year-old televangelist and former Republican presidential candidate, illustrated the last two when he predicted Mr Trump would “without question” win re-election and preside over a period “of great peace”, before the probable end of the world in 2025. After Mr Trump refused to accept his defeat, Mr Robertson accused the then president of living in an “alternate reality”.
由於反政府、世界末日預言的宗教和企業家傳統，美國具有豐富的陰謀論歷史。闡述後兩點的是羅伯遜（Pat Robertson），一位90歲的電視佈道家和前共和黨總統候選人，他預言川普將「毫無疑問」贏得連任，並帶領「太平盛世」至2025年可能發生的世界末日。在川普拒絕接受敗選後，羅伯遜指責這位當時的總統活在「平行世界」。
羅伯遜（Pat Robertson）是一位90歲的電視宣傳家和前共和黨總統候選人，他給出最後兩個預言，他預測川普將「毫無疑問」贏得連任，並帶領「太平盛世」至2025年可能發生的世界末日。在川普拒絕接受敗選後，羅伯遜指責當時的總統活在「平行世界」。
The left also has bunk theories, often involving predatory bankers, and sometimes pushed by Michael Moore or Oliver Stone. Yet the paranoid style in American politics has been most pronounced on the right. During the red scares of the 1950s and 60s, led by Joseph McCarthy and the John Birch Society, it almost subsumed it. And the past two decades have witnessed an even bigger explosion of right-wing confabulation: fuelled by the anti-empiricism of the Republican elite, the grievance politics of its base and new opportunities to spin the climate-change denialism, Benghazi trutherism and end-of-days frenzies that have ensued.
左派也有鬼扯的理論，通常涉及掠奪性銀行家，有時由導演摩爾或史東推動。然而，美國政治中妄想型風格在右派最為明顯。 在1950和1960年代由麥卡錫（Joseph McCarthy）和約翰·博齊協會（John Birch Society）主導的的紅色恐慌時期，右派幾乎把它內化了。在麥卡錫（Joseph McCarthy）和約翰·博齊協會（John Birch Society）領導的1950年代和60年代的紅色恐慌中，它幾乎被歸為一類。過去二十年來見證，右翼虛構情節更是大爆發，驅動力包括：共和黨菁英的反經驗主義、基本盤的受害政治觀、有新的機會杜撰氣候變遷否定主義、班加西真相主義，以及隨之而來的末日狂潮。過去二十年來見證，右翼虛構情節的影響更大：在反經驗主義的共和黨精英加油添醋下，奠定了受害政治的基礎，以及新機會來扭轉氣候變遷否定主義者，班加西真相主義和末日狂潮隨之而來。
Infowars, on which Mr Jones spends three-quarters of his time spinning anti-government falsehoods and the rest hawking quack supplements, such as Super Male Vitality, to steel his listeners for the coming civil war, has over 12m visits to its website a month. Fox News, where this week Tucker Carlson attacked the crackdown on QAnon as government mind-control, has millions more viewers. Such truth-bending was one of the enabling conditions for Mr Trump, who appeared on Mr Jones’s show and echoed many of his talking-points during his 2016 primary campaign. Yet the former president, an unfeigned conspiracist, did not only amplify the rise of right-wing conspiracism; he also transformed it.
《資訊戰》的瓊斯耗近四分之三的時間來扭轉反政府的假消息，其餘的時間用來兜售庸醫補充劑，例如重振雄風營養品，吸引聽眾為即將來臨的內戰做準備，網站每月有超過1,200萬的訪問數。卡森（Tucker Carlson）本周在福斯新聞（Fox News）抨擊QAnon鎮壓事件是政府控制人民思想，觀眾增加數百萬人。本周福斯新聞（Fox News）卡森（Tucker Carlson）抨擊QAnon鎮壓事件，因為政府控制人民思想，節目吸引數百萬觀眾。這種扭曲真相是川普的賦能條件。川普出現在瓊斯的節目，並回應他在2016年初選中的許多觀點。然而，這位前總統是個由衷的陰謀論者，不僅擴大右翼陰謀論的興起，也改變了它。
A genuinely prophetic book by the political scientists Russell Muirhead and Nancy Rosenblum, published in 2019 when QAnon was still in its infancy, describes Mr Trump’s conspiracy theories as a political step-change. Past conspiracies typically sought to explain a genuinely surprising occurrence, such as the ability of a lone gunman to assassinate the most protected man alive. They have also tended to flourish among the powerless. Mr Trump has promoted conspiracies, from Trump Tower and the Oval Office, only to demonise and invalidate his opponents, including the democratic system itself. Thus, his claim that Barack Obama was born in Africa; his attacks on “fake news” and whatever “Deep State” agency or dutiful public servant impeded him; and his electoral-fraud delusion. The QAnon conspiracy, which Mr Trump directly promoted, was essentially an effort by his supporters to write these fabrications into a single narrative.
政治學者繆海德（Russell Muirhead）和羅森布拉姆（Nancy Rosenblum）在2019年出版的一本真正的預言書，當時QAnon仍處於嬰兒期，將川普的陰謀論描述為政治的大躍進。昔日的陰謀論通常試圖解釋真正令人驚訝的事件，例如單槍匹馬的槍手，如何能暗殺世上最受保護的人。陰謀論也傾向在弱勢者之間傳得沸沸揚揚。川普從川普大廈和總統橢圓形辦公室提倡陰謀論，只是為了妖魔化、閹割他的政敵，其中包括民主制度本身。因此，他聲稱歐巴馬（Barack Obama）出生於非洲；他抨擊「假新聞」和「深層政府」機構，即妨礙他的盡職公務員；以及他的選舉欺詐妄想。
過去的陰謀通常試圖解釋一個真正令人驚訝的事件，例如一個孤獨的槍手暗殺最受保護的人後存活的能力。他們也傾向從無能為力中蓬勃發展。川普從川普大廈和總統橢圓形辦公室提倡陰謀，只是為了妖魔化並證明對手及民主制度本身的錯誤。因此，他聲稱歐巴馬（Barack Obama）出生於非洲。他對「假新聞」以及任何「深層國家」機構或盡職的公務員的攻擊阻止他，和他的選舉欺詐妄想。川普直接提倡的QAnon陰謀論，實質上是他的支持者將這些莫須有寫成單一敘述的努力。
For Mr Muirhead and Ms Rosenblum, Mr Trump’s conspiracism amounts to a blueprint for political success in a post-truth world, which imitators will probably follow. It is hard to disagree. Mr Trump’s fortunes are a triumph of delusion over political gravity. Despite leading his party to defeat, its leaders may be about to absolve him for inciting an insurrection intended to overturn that defeat, because most of the party’s voters still revere him, in part because they do not believe he was defeated.
對於繆海德和羅森布拉姆而言，川普的陰謀論意味著後真相世界政治成功的藍圖，效仿者可能跟進。難以否認地，川普的機運是一場妄想壓倒政治重力的勝利。儘管他引領所屬政黨步入敗途，並意圖推翻敗選事實而煽動叛亂，但共和黨領導人可能即將宣判他無罪，因為該黨多數選民仍然崇拜他，部分原因是他們不相信他被擊敗。
川普的命運是對政治嚴重性幻想的勝利。儘管他領導政黨失敗了，但領導人可能因意圖推翻失敗的叛亂而赦免他，因為該黨多數選民仍然崇拜他，部分原因是他們不相信他被擊敗。
It is a stunning achievement, albeit decades in the making. And the longstanding structural weaknesses Mr Trump has exploited, including the grievance politics Mr Carlson pushes, the erosion of established media, the anarchy of the internet, will endure. Twitter’s crackdown on QAnon is of little consequence by comparison.
儘管已醞釀了數十年，這項成就仍令人震驚。川普利用的多項長期結構性弱點，包括卡爾森所推動的受害政治、老牌媒體公信力式微、網路無政府狀態，都將持續。
儘管已有數十年的歷史，但這項成就仍令人震驚。川普利用的長期結構性弱點，包括卡爾森所推動的受害政治--老牌媒體的侵蝕，網路無政府狀態將持續。相比下，推特對QAnon的鎮壓幾乎沒有影響。
Back to life, back to reality 回到生活，回到現實
The fight for American democracy cannot be won by companies—or election officials or judges. It will be decided by Republican politicians, who now have an opportunity to reset the terms of battle. Democracy thrives as a contest of ideas; it muddles through as a war of interests. But without the shared reality that was the single main target of Mr Trump’s attacks, it cannot function.■
這場為美國民主而戰之役，無法靠公司、靠民選官員、或靠法官而獲勝。這將取決於共和黨政治人物，他們現在有機會重設戰鬥條件。民主在思想競賽中茁壯；民主從利益鬥爭渾水涉水而出。但是，如果對什麼是事實沒有共同的看法，民主就無法運作，而這正是川普攻擊的主要目標。■
美國民主的戰鬥無法靠公司或選舉官員或法官獲勝，這將取決於共和黨政治人物，他們現在有機會重設戰鬥條件。民主在思想競賽中茁壯，卻被混淆成一場利益戰爭。但是，如果沒有共同的現實做為單一主要目標，並承受川普攻擊，它就無法發揮作用。■
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