Globalisation unwound 全球化的鬆動
Has covid-19 killed globalisation? 新冠病毒是否殺死全球化？
The flow of people, trade and capital will be slowed 人員、貿易和資本流動將放緩
Even before the pandemic, globalisation was in trouble. The open system of trade that had dominated the world economy for decades had been damaged by the financial crash and the Sino-American trade war. Now it is reeling from its third body-blow in a dozen years as lockdowns have sealed borders and disrupted commerce. The number of passengers at Heathrow has dropped by 97% year-on-year; Mexican car exports fell by 90% in April; 21% of transpacific container-sailings in May have been cancelled. As economies reopen, activity will recover, but don’t expect a quick return to a carefree world of unfettered movement and free trade. The pandemic will politicise travel and migration and entrench a bias towards self-reliance. This inward-looking lurch will enfeeble the recovery, leave the economy vulnerable and spread geopolitical instability.
即使在疫病流行前，全球化就陷入麻煩。開放的貿易體系主導世界經濟數十年，早已受到金融危機和中美貿易戰的破壞。現在，由於封鎖關閉了邊境且中斷商業，全球化正因十幾年來的第三次沉重打擊而步履蹣跚。希斯洛機場的乘客數比同期下降97％；墨西哥汽車出口在4月跌幅90％。 5月時21％的 跨太平洋貨櫃運輸被取消。隨著經濟重新開放，經濟活動將恢復，但不要指望迅速回到毫無約束活動和貿易自由的無憂世界。這次疫病流行將使旅行和移民政治化，並使自力更生的偏見根深柢固。這種關注自己的傾向將弱化復甦，使經濟脆弱並擴大地緣政治的不穩定性。
The world has had several epochs of integration, but the trading system that emerged in the 1990s went further than ever before. China became the world’s factory and borders opened to people, goods, capital and information (see Chaguan). After Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008 most banks and some multinational firms pulled back. Trade and foreign investment stagnated relative to gdp, a process this newspaper later called slowbalisation. Then came President Donald Trump’s trade wars, which mixed worries about blue-collar jobs and China’s autocratic capitalism with a broader agenda of chauvinism and contempt for alliances. At the moment when the virus first started to spread in Wuhan last year, America’s tariff rate on imports was back to its highest level since 1993 and both America and China had begun to decouple their technology industries.
世界曾歷經多次整合時期，但1990年代興起的貿易體系整合程度更甚以往。中國成為世界工廠，對人員、貨物、資本和資訊開放邊界。 雷曼兄弟2008年倒閉後，大多數銀行和一些跨國公司撤退。貿易和外國投資與國內產值相比停滯不前，本報後來稱這一過程為全球化放緩。繼之而來的是川普總統的貿易戰，摻雜對藍領工作和中國專制資本主義的憂慮，以及大國沙文主義宏圖和對盟友的蔑視。在去年病毒首次在武漢開始散播的那一刻，美國的進口關稅稅率回到1993年來的最高水準，並且美中雙方都開始脫鉤彼此的科技產業。
Since January a new wave of disruption has spread westward from Asia. Factory, shop and office closures have caused demand to tumble and prevented suppliers from reaching customers. The damage is not universal. Food is still getting through, Apple insists it can still make iPhones and China’s exports have held up so far, buoyed by sales of medical gear. But the overall effect is savage. World goods trade may shrink by 10-30% this year. In the first ten days of May exports from South Korea, a trade powerhouse, fell by 46% year-on-year, probably the worst decline since records began in 1967.
自1月起，新一波的破壞浪潮從亞洲向西方擴散。工廠、商店和辦公室關閉導致需求崩跌，且妨礙供應商接觸客戶。破壞並非舉世皆然，食物仍能流通，蘋果堅稱仍可生產iPhone，目前中國醫療設備的銷售持續提振出口。但總體影響是巨大的。全球貨物貿易今年可能萎縮10％至30％。貿易強國南韓5月上旬的出口比同期下降46％，這可能是自1967年有記錄來的最大跌幅。
The underlying anarchy of global governance is being exposed. France and Britain have squabbled over quarantine rules, China is threatening Australia with punitive tariffs for demanding an investigation into the virus’s origins and the White House remains on the warpath about trade. Despite some instances of co-operation during the pandemic, such as the Federal Reserve’s loans to other central banks, America has been reluctant to act as the world’s leader. Chaos and division at home have damaged its prestige. China’s secrecy and bullying have confirmed that it is unwilling—and unfit—to pick up the mantle. Around the world, public opinion is shifting away from globalisation. People have been disturbed to find that their health depends on a brawl to import protective equipment and on the migrant workers who work in care homes and harvest crops.
全球治理的潛在無政府狀態正逐漸暴露。法國和英國為檢疫規則爭論不休，中國以懲罰性關稅威脅澳洲，要求調查病毒的起源；而白宮仍對貿易持續挑事開戰。儘管在疫病流行間有些合作的實例，例如聯準會提供他國央行貸款，但美國一直不願擔任世界領導人，且聲望遭國內的混亂和分裂破壞。中國的機密性和欺凌行為已經證實，它不願意、也不適合挑起重責。全世界的輿論正遠離全球化。令人不安的是，民眾發現他們的健康竟然要倚靠爭奪進口防護裝備，以及從事照護和作物收割的移工。
This is just the start. Although the flow of information is largely free outside China, the movement of people, goods and capital is not. Consider people first. The Trump administration is proposing to curtail immigration further, arguing that jobs should go to Americans instead. Other countries are likely to follow. Travel is restricted, limiting the scope to find work, inspect plants and drum up orders. Some 90% of people live in countries with largely closed borders. Many governments will open up only to countries with similar health protocols: one such “travel bubble” is mooted to include Australia and New Zealand and, perhaps, Taiwan and Singapore. The industry is signalling that the disruption to travel will be lasting. Airbus has cut production by a third and Emirates, a symbol of globalisation, expects no recovery until 2022.
這只是開始。儘管資訊在中國境外大致上自由流動，但人員、貨物和資本的移動並非如此。先從人員考慮，川普政府提議擴大縮減移民，認為職缺應由美國人取代。其他國家可能跟進。旅行受到約束，限制尋找工作、視察工廠和爭取訂單的範圍。占全球約90％人口的國家大致封鎖邊境。 許多政府只向訂有類似公衛協議的國家開放邊境：其中一個評估中的這種「旅遊泡泡」包含澳洲和紐西蘭，也許也會納入台灣和新加坡。產業已發出旅遊將持續中斷的信號。空中巴士已削減三分之一的產量，象徵全球化的阿聯酋航空預計到2022年後才能恢復正常營業。
Trade will suffer as countries abandon the idea that firms and goods are treated equally regardless of where they come from. Governments and central banks are asking taxpayers to underwrite national firms through their stimulus packages, creating a huge and ongoing incentive to favour them. And the push to bring supply chains back home in the name of resilience is accelerating. On May 12th Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, told the nation that a new era of economic self-reliance has begun. Japan’s covid-19 stimulus includes subsidies for firms that repatriate factories; European Union officials talk of “strategic autonomy” and are creating a fund to buy stakes in firms. America is urging Intel to build plants at home. Digital trade is thriving but its scale is still modest. The sales abroad of Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft are equivalent to just 1.3% of world exports.
各國放棄不論公司和商品來自何方，一律平等對待的想法，將衝擊貿易。政府和央行正在透過刺激計畫，要求納稅人為國有企業提供財力支援，創造巨大且持續的激勵措施來嘉惠他們。並以彈性的名義，致力加速推動供應鏈返國。 5月12日，印度總理莫迪告訴國民，經濟自立的新時代已經開始。日本因應新冠病毒的刺激方案包括補貼返國設廠的公司；歐盟官員談論「戰略性自主權」，並成立基金收購股權。美國敦促英特爾在國內建廠。數位貿易蓬勃發展，但規模仍然不大。亞馬遜、蘋果、臉書和微軟在國外的銷售額，僅相當於全球出口的1.3％。
The flow of capital is also suffering, as long-term investment sinks. Chinese venture-capital investment in America dropped to $400m in the first quarter of this year, 60% below its level two years ago. Multinational firms may cut their cross-border investment by a third this year. America has just instructed its main federal pension fund to stop buying Chinese shares, and so far this year countries representing 59% of world gdp have tightened their rules on foreign investment. As governments try to pay down their new debts by taxing firms and investors, some countries may be tempted to further restrict the flow of capital across borders.
隨著長期投資的減少，資本的流動也受到衝擊。今年首季中國在美國的創業投資降至4億美元，比兩年前的水準低60％。今年跨國公司可能會削減三分之一的海外投資。美國剛指示主要聯邦養老基金停止購買陸股，今年迄今為止，代表全球59％GDP的國家收緊對外國投資的規定。當各國政府試圖向公司和投資者徵稅來償還新債時，某些國家可能會進一步限制跨境資本流動。
It’s lonely out there 寂寞的圈外人
Don’t be fooled that a trading system with an unstable web of national controls will be more humane or safer. Poorer countries will find it harder to catch up and, in the rich world, life will be more expensive and less free. The way to make supply chains more resilient is not to domesticate them, which concentrates risk and forfeits economies of scale, but to diversify them. Moreover, a fractured world will make solving global problems harder, including finding a vaccine and securing an economic recovery.
不要傻傻地認為，一個由各國控制拼湊成網狀的貿易體系，會更人性化或更安全。窮國將發現難以追趕，富國的生活成本將更昂貴且更少自由。使供應鏈更具彈性的方法，不是將它們國內化，那只會集中風險並喪失規模經濟，而是使它們分散化。再說，四分五裂的世界將使解決全球問題變得更加困難，包括尋找疫苗和確保經濟復甦。
Tragically, this logic is no longer fashionable. Those three body-blows have so wounded the open system of trade that the powerful arguments in its favour are being neglected. Wave goodbye to the greatest era of globalisation—and worry about what is going to take its place.■
可悲的是，這種邏輯不再流行。這三大打擊重傷開放的貿易體系，支持者強而有力論述遭到忽視。揮別全球化最偉大的時代，並擔心何者將取而代之。■
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