The zombification of Britain
Why Rishi got it wrong 為什麼瑞斯錯了
Britain’s chancellor should not have extended the furlough scheme
英國財相不應該延長無薪假補助
Oct 29th 2020
Imagine if, 20 years ago, the British government had vowed to protect every job in the country. Today an extra 30,000 Britons would be working as high-street travel agents, 30,000 or so would earn their crust by repairing fax machines, and 40,000 would still be stacking shelves and ringing the tills in Woolworths, a chain of stores that went bust in 2009.
想像假如20年前，英國政府誓言要保護國內每一份工作，今天將多出3萬名英國人，做著商業街的旅遊代理人的工作，約3萬人靠修理傳真機維生，還有4萬人仍在沃爾沃斯堆放貨架及操作收銀機，沃爾沃斯連鎖商店在2009年破產。
Allowing obsolete jobs to wither and new ones to blossom is one of the main ways in which capitalist economies get richer and more productive. Governments interfere with this process of creative destruction at their peril. That is why the direction that Britain is taking in its efforts to mitigate the economic effects of the pandemic is so mistaken.
允許過時的工作凋零、新的工作興盛，是資本主義經濟變得更富裕、生產力更高的主要方式。各國政府要干預創造性破壞的過程，後果自負。英國努力減輕疫情對經濟影響，方向卻大錯特錯，原因就在此。
Since March Britain has been shielding workers and their families from the ruinous effects of the pandemic primarily through its furlough scheme, which pays 80% of workers’ salaries. Britain’s approach is similar to that of other European countries, but its scheme is more generous than those elsewhere. In the deepest days of lockdown, close to 10m workers—a third of the labour force—were benefiting from it. More than twice as many Britons remain furloughed as Italians, Germans or French.
自3月以來，英國為保護勞工及家庭免受疫病流行毀滅性的影響，主要採行無薪假補助，支付勞工80％的工資。英國的做法與其他歐洲國家類似，但是補助計畫比其他國家更慷慨。在封鎖最嚴重的時期，近千萬名勞工（占勞動力的三分之一）從中受惠。英國維持無薪假人數是義大利、德國或法國的兩倍多。
Until recently Rishi Sunak, the chancellor of the exchequer, had been planning to introduce a stripped-down replacement for his furlough scheme. But at the last minute, as it became clear that infection rates are rising alarmingly fast across large parts of the country, the chancellor changed his mind and opted instead to continue with an adjusted scheme that is due to start on November 1st and is almost as generous.
直到最近，英國財政大臣蘇納克（Rishi Sunak）擬引入精簡的方案來替代無薪假補助，但在最後一分鐘，當感染率在全國大範圍地區急遽上升的變得明顯，財政大臣改變主意，選擇11月1日起繼續實施修正後的方案，且幾乎一樣慷慨。
Under the new rules, workers need put in only 20% of their normal scheduled hours, and the government will cover half their normal pay. For companies that have been forced to close by government restrictions, the scheme will pay two-thirds of workers’ salaries.
在新規下，勞工只需要投入平時工作時間的20％，而政府將支付原工資的一半。對於因政府限制而被迫關閉的公司，該方案將支付勞工三分之二的薪水。
Politically, Mr Sunak’s move is shrewd. The opposition Labour Party can hardly criticise a policy that it itself had called for. And by making it easier for bosses to keep workers on the books, Britain will for the time being sweep the pent-up rise in unemployment under the carpet. That, in turn, will blunt the criticism coming from those on the right wing of Mr Sunak’s Conservative Party, who worry that restrictions on movement and socialising are strangling the economy.
從政治上看，蘇納克的舉動是明智的。反對黨工黨很難批評自己要求的政策，而且讓雇主更容易將勞工留在薪冊上，英國將暫時掩蓋蠢蠢欲升的失業率。而這又能緩和保守黨右翼人士的批評，他們擔心限制行動和社交會扼殺經濟。
But the about-turn makes it more likely that the government will protect jobs for which there is no demand. The economy is changing fast. Fewer sandwich-sellers will be needed in city centres in future, since more people will work from home. The growth of online shopping, and the decline of the bricks-and-mortar sort, has accelerated. At least 1m jobs supported by the new furlough scheme, representing about 3% of the workforce, are unlikely to survive in the long run.
但是政策髮夾彎使得政府更有可能保護沒有需求的工作。經濟瞬息萬變，由於愈來愈多人在家工作，未來市區需要的三明治販售商將更少。線上購物成長及實體商店的衰落加速。新一輪無薪假補助保住至少100萬個職位（約占勞動力的3％），這些職位長遠來看不太可能倖存。
The cost of supporting these jobs, which is probably around £1bn a month, is a problem in itself. But in a world in which the budget deficit is that size every day it is a minor one. What is more worrying is the likelihood that the government is retarding economic recovery by discouraging the reallocation of workers from dying industries to growing ones. It is leaving the country stuck with the post-pandemic equivalent of fax-repairmen and Woolies’ sales staff.
保住這些工作的成本約每月10億英鎊，這本身是個問題。但在全世界每天預算赤字如此龐大，這算輕微。更令人擔憂的是，政府可能阻礙勞力從垂死產業重新配置到成長型產業，進而延緩經濟復甦。這使疫後英國甩不掉過時工作，如同傳真機維修員和沃爾沃斯的銷售員。
America is doing better. Across the Atlantic, politicians have focused less on preserving jobs than on preserving incomes, posting stimulus cheques to households and temporarily bumping up unemployment-insurance payments (these have since lapsed, but after the election Congress will probably decide to reintroduce them). Earlier this year, government top-ups were worth $600 a week, so generous that seven out of ten unemployed Americans earned more from benefits than they had done when they were still in work.
美國做得更好。在大西洋另一端，政治人物較少聚焦在保護工作，而是保護收入，向家庭寄出紓困支票並暫時提高失業保險金支付（雖已失效，但大選後國會可能會決定重新採用）。今年早些時候，政府補足的費用為每周600美元，慷慨程度到十分之七的失業者所獲得的福利金，比他們在職賺的錢還多。
This largesse has given people the financial security to experiment with new ways of earning money. As the economy has reopened, America has seen an explosion of small-business creation, with laid-off workers finding gaps in the market. Europe’s economic recovery is weaker than America’s, and Britain lags still further behind. The furlough scheme, which encourages workers to cling to old jobs rather than looking for new ones, is almost certainly part of the reason.
這種慷慨捐助提供人們財務保障，去嘗試新方式賺錢。隨著經濟重啟，美國新創立的小企業呈爆炸性成長，被解僱勞工發覺市場有缺口可填補。歐洲經濟復甦比美國弱，英國則落後更多。無薪假補助鼓勵勞工緊抓著舊崗位而不是尋找新工作，這幾乎可確定是一部分原因。
It is not too late to change course. The government should wind down the furlough scheme, as it had planned to, and follow the American example. It should not just cancel a planned reduction in the value of universal credit, but sharply increase its value, so as to ensure that workers whose jobs disappear earn the same as those who stay on furlough. If so, they would get 85% of their previous earnings in benefits, up from 55% at present. That would allow the necessary reallocation of resources without forcing people into penury.
改變路線為時不晚。英國政府應按原計畫，逐漸結束無薪假補助，並仿效美國。不但應該取消調降統一福利救濟金的計畫，還應大幅提高金額，以確保工作消失的勞工與續放無薪假的勞工賺同樣多的錢。如果這樣，他們將獲得以前收入的85％，高於目前的55％。這將允許必要的資源重分配，而不會迫使人們陷入赤貧。
Build it to last 永續發展
In the spring, when it was still unclear how long the pandemic would last, Britain was right to try to hold the economy in suspended animation. Now that the world knows the impact of covid-19 will be deep and enduring, the task for politicians is to protect workers, and leave the market to work its magic.
春季時疫情會持續多久還不明朗，英國試圖使經濟處於停滯狀態是正確的。現在全世界既知新冠肺炎的影響深遠而持久，政治人物的任務應是保護勞工，讓市場發揮魔力。
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