When separatists separate
MARCH 31, 2021
The return of Alex Salmond賽蒙德的回歸
The former leader of the Scottish National Party has a new party, and some radical ideas for independence
前蘇格蘭民族黨魁另創新黨，並提出更激進的獨立思想
MARCH 31, 2021
SUCCESSFUL POLITICAL parties are coalitions, and the Scottish National Party’s has been expansive. Over the years it has been divided on Europe, NATO and devolution. It has lured those who dream of a socialist Scotland, and those who think it can be a low-tax rival to Ireland. Young Scandiphiles rub elbows with old Anglophobes. Electoral success and growing support for independence have bound it together.
成功的政黨是聯盟，蘇格蘭民族黨（SNP）就一直在擴張。多年來，黨內就歐洲、北約和權力下放議題一直有歧見。它吸引夢想蘇格蘭成為社會主義國度者，也吸引認為蘇格蘭能在低稅率上與愛爾蘭競爭的人。年輕的親北歐者與年老的仇英者互相來往。選舉的成功與支持獨立者日增，把該黨結合在一起。
On March 26th, the party split. Alex Salmond, Nicola Sturgeon’s predecessor as first minister and its leader in the independence referendum of 2014, announced that he was leading a new party, called Alba. The Scottish Parliament’s electoral system comprises constituency and list seats, and is geared to stop one party becoming too powerful. Mr Salmond would like independence supporters to game this system, and back the SNP with one vote and Alba with the other, to create a parliament with a “supermajority” for independence.
3月26日，蘇格蘭民族黨分裂。該黨主席史特金的前任、領導2014年獨立公投的薩蒙德宣布，正在領導新政黨阿爾巴（Alba）。蘇格蘭議會的選舉制度由區域席次和不分區席次構成，旨在阻止一黨獨大。薩蒙德會希望支持獨立者鑽選制漏洞，一票支持蘇格蘭民族黨，另一票支持阿爾巴黨（Alba），建立一個獨立派占「絕對多數」的議會。
To many, it looks like revenge. Last year Mr Salmond was tried and acquitted on charges of sexual assault against ten women. He accused Ms Sturgeon’s inner circle of a political plot to have him jailed, and he is suing the Scottish government over its handling of complaints against him. She doubts his fitness for office.
對許多人來說，這舉動看似報仇。去年薩蒙德因被控對十名婦女性侵害受審，而後無罪釋放。他指控史特金圈內人設下政治陰謀構陷他入獄，正控告蘇格蘭政府對他的投訴處理不當。她懷疑他不適任公職。
But Mr Salmond is also prising open a growing fissure in the SNP over how to achieve independence. Under the Scotland Act which governs devolution, the union is the preserve of Westminster. The referendum of 2014 took place after the British government granted a legal instrument, known as a Section 30 order. Persuading Boris Johnson to do so again is Ms Sturgeon’s strong preference; only if a referendum is recognised in London will it result in exit negotiations and statehood. Otherwise, it is a dead end.
但是，薩蒙德也表示，SNP在如何實現獨立方面，敲開一個不斷增長的裂縫。在政府權力下放的《蘇格蘭法》，統一是屬英國國會的「保留事項」。 2014年的公投是在英國政府根據第30條命令授予合法下進行。說服強生固態重施是史特金的強烈偏好。只有在公投得到倫敦的認可，才能導致脫離協商和建國。否則，這是一個死局。
Many nationalists are sick of waiting, and are toying with more radical options. Mr Salmond has offered himself as their leader. A big nationalist majority in the Scottish Parliament would be a “mandate to negotiate”, he argues. “It is a fundamental mistake to put forward the Section 30 as the Holy Grail.” He cites the “velvet divorce” that split Czechoslovakia in the early 1990s as an example of a break-up that was preceded by an election, rather than a referendum. He won’t be pinned to a strategy, but says options could include a plebiscite organised by the Scottish Parliament, securing international pressure, a constitutional convention of lawmakers or demonstrations.
許多民族主義者厭倦等待，並在玩弄更激進的選項。薩蒙德主動擔任他們的領袖。他的論點是，民族主義者若在蘇格蘭議會取得多數，就有如「民意授權談判」。 他主張「提出第30條命令作為聖盃是個根本的錯誤。」他舉1990年代初讓捷克斯洛伐克分裂的「天鵝絨革命」為例，來說明在該分裂之前舉行的是選舉，而不是公投。他不會拘泥於戰略，但他說方案可以包括蘇格蘭議會組織的全民公投、確保國際壓力、立法者的立憲大會或示威遊行。
Two SNP members of parliament and a handful of councillors have defected to Mr Salmond’s new party, but he probably won’t force a major exodus at the ballot box. Some 79% of SNP voters say they have an unfavourable view of him, a similar figure to Tory voters.
兩名SNP國會議員和一小撮議員叛逃至薩蒙德的新政黨，但他可能不會迫使支持者在投票時大批出走。大約79％的SNP選民表示他們對他的看法不佳，這一數字與保守黨選民相似。
He could still find a niche. The SNP has become more Europhile since Brexit, and there is a split in the party over trans rights. Jan Eichhorn of the University of Edinburgh thinks he could win over socially conservative, pro-Brexit nationalists. Mr Salmond says he would like to attract working-class Scots who were animated by the referendum in 2014. The party has been held together by success, says Heinz Brandenburg of the University of Strathclyde: “Now, the cracks are just showing at the most inopportune moment.”
薩蒙德仍然可以找到定位。自英國脱歐以來，SNP變得更加偏歐，而黨內在跨性別權利上存在分歧。愛丁堡大學的艾希霍恩認為，他可以贏得社會保守主義者及支持脫歐的民族主義者選票。薩蒙德表示，他想吸引在2014年公投中活躍的蘇格蘭勞工階級。斯特拉斯克萊德大學的勃蘭登堡說，SNP往昔因成功而結合，「如今裂痕卻在最糟的時候顯現」。
Mr Salmond may cause more damage if he fails to find such a niche. Rather than creating a parliament stuffed with nationalists, Mr Salmond may fall short of winning seats, while also denying the SNP the list seats it needs to form an overall majority. The SNP strategy has long been to win the trust of suburban Scotland through cool-headedness. Alba may frighten away persuadable voters, says a veteran.
薩蒙德若找不到這種利基，可能弄巧成拙。不但不能建立一個充滿民族主義者的議會，薩蒙德反而可能未能贏得席位，同時剝奪SNP形成總體多數黨所需的席位。SNP戰略長久來贏得蘇格蘭郊區頭腦冷靜選民的信任。一位資深人士說，阿爾巴黨可能會嚇走易被說服的選民。
Some of Ms Sturgeon’s supporters are happy with the split. “He can have all the cranks that think we’ll win independence by hanging flags off bridges, and we’ll get on with speaking to the people we need to persuade,” says one. “I’ve never had a colonic irrigation but I imagine this is what it feels like.” Mr Johnson has several reasons to continue to refuse another independence referendum. Watching the once-disciplined nationalists scrap over strategy is a compelling one. ■
史特金的一些支持者樂見分裂。一位人士說：「就讓他挖走所有怪咖，那些人認為我們可以透過在橋上懸掛旗幟來贏得獨立。我們則會繼續勸說需要說服的人們。我從未灌過腸，但我想感覺大概就像這樣。」強森有許多理由繼續拒絕另一場獨立公投，其中一個難以抗拒的理由，就是觀望曾經自律的民族主義者因為策略而鬧翻。 ■
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