奧運的腥風血雨--7月舉辦東京奧運會的障礙令人卻步

Olympic gory 奧運的腥風血雨

The obstacles to holding the Tokyo Olympics in July are daunting 

7月舉辦東京奧運會的障礙令人卻步

Most Japanese would prefer to postpone the games again, or cancel them. 多數日本人偏好再度延辦或取消比賽

THE RED digits on a clock outside Tokyo Station tick off the seconds until the Olympic games begin, on July 23rd. Yet the closer the date gets, the greater the uncertainty about whether the games will go ahead at all. The clock has, after all, already been reset once: as the covid-19 pandemic swept across the world last year, they were delayed until this year. Organisers spoke of the Olympics as a symbol of the light at the end of covid’s tunnel. With the torch relay, the official start of the festivities, set to begin on March 25th but with the disease still rampant, another decision looms.

在東京車站外面時鐘上的紅色數字，為7月23日登場的奧運倒數計時。而日期愈近，奧運是否會繼續進行的不確定性就愈大。畢竟，時鐘已經被重置過一次：去年新冠病毒大流行橫掃全球，奧運被推遲至今年。主辦者稱奧運將是疫情隧道盡頭的光明象徵。隨著火炬傳遞，慶祝活動將於3月25日正式開始，但由於疾病仍猖獗，另一個決定迫在眉睫。

It is a more complicated choice than it was last year. Covid-19 is better understood and more effectively controlled than before, making the games, at least without massed spectators, appear tantalisingly feasible. But holding them comes with big risks. An Olympic outbreak would symbolise hubris and incompetence, and could provoke a crisis for the prime minister, Suga Yoshihide, whose approval ratings are already sagging. The alternative is also unpalatable: the International Olympic Committee (IOC) has, at least so far, ruled out another postponement, meaning that if the Tokyo games are not held this year, they will probably be cancelled altogether. “They have presented [the games] as a symbol of victory over coronavirus, so if they cancel, it becomes a symbol of the Japanese government’s failure,” says Sone Yasunori of Keio University. “Both options are quite terrible.”

比起去年，這是更為複雜的選擇。人們比之前更充分了解新冠病毒，也能更有效的控制，辦場比賽的可行性極為誘人，至少在沒有大量觀眾的情況下，但是舉行伴隨著龐大的風險。奧運爆發疫情將象徵著傲慢和無能，並可能給首相菅義偉帶來危機，他的支持率已經下跌。另一種方案也令人難以接受：國際奧林匹克委員會（IOC）至少到目前為止排除再度延後的可能性，這意味著如果今年不舉行東京奧運會，它們可能會完全被取消。慶應義塾大學的曾根泰教說：「他們視奧運比賽為戰勝新冠病毒的象徵，因此如果取消，將成為日本政府失敗的象徵。」「兩種選項都非常糟糕。」

The reasons to cancel the games are obvious. The pandemic is still raging around the world, with nearly 300,000 new cases recorded every day. Japan itself is in the midst of a stubborn third wave that forced the government to extend a state of emergency until early March. Although vaccination campaigns have begun in many countries, even the most optimistic estimates do not foresee immunity becoming widespread enough by the summer to guarantee a virus-free event. In Japan the first jabs have yet to be administered. Some public-health experts say it would be mad to go ahead. Even some athletes agree. As Niiya Hitomi, a Japanese track-and-field star, put it: “To be honest, I think life is more important than the Olympics.”

取消比賽的理由原因顯而易見。疫病仍在全球蔓延，每天近30萬新增確診病例。日本本身正深陷於難對付的第三波疫情，這迫使日本政府將緊急狀態延至3月初。儘管許多國家已開始疫苗接種行動，但即使是最樂觀的估計，也無法預見到了夏天將達到群體免疫，保證完全免於病毒威脅。日本連首批疫苗都尚未施打，一些公衛專家說，如期舉辦（奧運）將是瘋狂之舉。日本首批疫苗尚未批准，一些公衛專家說，再這樣下去可能會瘋掉，甚至有些運動員也同意。套句日本田徑明星新谷仁美的話說：「說實話，我認為生命比奧運重要。」甚至有些運動員也同意，正如日本田徑明星新谷仁美說：「說實話，我認為生活比奧運更重要。」

The Japanese public, predictably, has soured on the idea of hosting tens of thousands of athletes, journalists and other hangers-on from around the world, each potentially a vector for the virus. When polled in 2019, nearly 90% of Japanese were looking forward to the Olympics; recent polls show that 80% now oppose holding the games this year (roughly 40% favour cancellation, while another 40% want another postponement).

可想而知，日本民眾一想到要接待來自世界各地成千上萬的運動員、記者和其他隨行人員就大皺眉頭，每個人都可能成為病毒媒介。可以預見，日本民眾對接待來自世界各地成千上萬的運動選手、記者和其他相關人士的想法已興致缺缺，每個人都有可能成為病毒的媒介。在2019年的民調中，將近90％的日本人對奧運會充滿期待;最近的民調則顯示，現有80％的人反對今年舉辦奧運（大約40％的人傾向取消，另外40％希望再度延遲）。

Spiralling costs have added to the misgivings. The tab had already ballooned from a projected $7.3bn to an official estimate of $12.6bn, but government’s own auditors put the true cost at over $20bn. Postponement and virus-prevention measures will add another $2.8bn to the total. The president of Tokyo’s organising committee, Mori Yoshiro, an 83-year-old former prime minister, added to the event’s problems earlier this month when he suggested that women talk too much in meetings, prompting a storm of public indignation. Japanese media are reporting that he will soon resign.

急劇上升的支出加劇擔憂。預算已從預計的73億美元激增至官方估計的126億美元，但政府自己的審計師估計，實際成本超過200億美元。推遲和防疫措施將額外支出28億美元。擔任東奧組委會會長的日本前首相森喜朗也在月初時惹出麻煩，他提出女人在會議上話太多引發公憤，日媒報導他將很快辭職。

Yet though the Japanese people bear most of the risks of the games, the choice is not theirs alone. Japan’s top leadership remains committed: Mr Suga told a recent virtual gathering of the World Economic Forum that Japan is “determined to deliver hope and courage to the world”. So is the IOC: Thomas Bach, its president, has said there is “no plan B” to holding the Olympics in Tokyo this year. Myriad stakeholders, from national Olympic committees to corporate sponsors to television networks, have an interest in seeing the games happen, even in a limited form. Many athletes would welcome the chance to compete. Many Japanese business leaders believe even a circumscribed Olympics would be better than cancellation, economically speaking. Big sporting events elsewhere offer hope that the games can proceed: just this week, America’s National Football League crowned a new Super Bowl champion, while the Australian Open, an international tennis tournament, got under way, despite a series of covid-19 scares.

儘管日本民眾背負奧運的大部分風險，但他們不是唯一能作主的人。日本的最高領導層仍然承諾舉辦：菅義偉在最近的世界經濟論壇虛擬會議上說，日本「決心為世界帶來希望和勇氣」。國際奧委會也是如此：該主席巴赫表示，今年東京奧運沒有「備案」。 從國家奧委會、企業贊助商到電視網，無數相關者基於切身利益，都對奧運舉辦樂觀其成，即使形式受限。從國家奧委會到企業贊助商再到電視網路商，無數的利益相關者都有興趣看著奧運的舉辦，即使形式受限。許多運動員歡迎有參賽的機會。從經濟面來說，許多日本企業領袖認為，即使是受到限制的奧運也比完全取消好。各地的大型體育賽事也為奧運會的進行點燃希望：就在本周，國家美式足球聯盟（NFL）加冕了新的超級盃冠軍，而澳洲網球公開賽也正在進行，儘管出現一連串的新冠恐慌。

The Olympics, however, present a challenge on a different scale. Some 1,200 players, staff and officials visited Australia for the Open. More than 11,000 athletes from some 200 countries are booked to compete in Tokyo, with many more officials, coaches and reporters tagging along. Organisers must figure out how to keep athletes healthy, especially in close-contact sports. Outbreaks have already disrupted sumo and rugby tournaments in Japan this year. If top contenders are infected, it would threaten not only their health, but also the integrity of the competition. Organisers will also have to work out how to welcome fans, if they are allowed to attend at all. At the moment foreign spectators are unlikely, though some local ones may be permitted, as they have been in recent months at Japanese football and baseball games.

但是，奧運帶來的挑戰程度不同。澳網公開賽約1,200名選手、員工和官員造訪，東京奧運預定11,000多名、200多個國家的運動員參賽，以及更多的官員、教練和記者緊跟著。主辦者必須想清楚如何保持運動員的健康，尤其是在近距離接觸運動。今年的日本相撲和橄欖球比賽已遭疫情破壞。如果頂級參賽者染疫，不僅會威脅他們的健康，還會威脅到比賽的公正性。主辦者如果允許粉絲參加，還必須制定出相關措施。目前，外國觀眾不太可能受邀，但或許可容許一些本地觀眾入場觀賽，比照日本近幾個月足球和棒球賽的做法。目前，外國觀眾不太可能，儘管最近幾個本地的比賽，如近最近幾個月的日本足球和棒球比賽，似乎有對外開放。

Plans released by the organising committee this month offer hints of what such an event might look like. Those attending would be subject to constant testing and rigorous restrictions on movement. What spectators there are would be allowed to clap, but not sing or chant. Hugs and handshakes should be avoided. The Japanese government’s covid-19 tracking app, COCOA, would be deployed to try to stop the spread of any infections. (It has problems of its own: the health ministry recently admitted that for more than four months, a bug prevented the Android version of the app from notifying users who came into close contact with individuals who tested positive for covid-19.)

奧委會本月發布的計劃，透露出奧運會可能的模樣。那些參加者必須受到不斷的檢測和嚴格的行動限制。在場觀眾可以鼓掌，但不能唱歌或吶喊。那裡的觀眾可以鼓掌，但不能唱歌或頌唱禱文，擁抱和握手應當避免。日本政府將部署新冠病毒追踪應用程式COCOA，以試圖阻止任何感染源傳播。 但程式本身有問題：日本衛生部最近承認，有超過四個月的時間，Android版App礙於程式漏洞，沒能在用戶近距離接觸新冠確診陽性者之時，發出通知。日本衛生部最近承認，Android版的程式漏洞阻止通知與新冠確診者密切接觸的用戶，已長達四個月。

The fate of the games, like so much else, will depend on how the pandemic progresses. In private, some sources close to the government presume that holding them as scheduled will prove impossible. They wonder about the next unclaimed summer slot—in 2032. Other sources think that the obstacles will seem less daunting once the winter outbreak ebbs and vaccines start flowing. The public, they reckon, will come around. Either way, Japan will probably twist and turn to avoid making a unilateral decision, lest it be seen as denying the world. Last year’s postponement came only after Australia and Canada, among others, announced they would not send any athletes. In late January, by contrast, the head of Australia’s national committee declared: “The Tokyo Games are on. The flame will be lit on July 23rd 2021.” If any athletes do indeed make it to the starting line, that in itself will be a feat worthy of a medal. ■

奧運的命運像其他比賽一樣，將取決於疫情後續發展。.一些接近政府的消息人士私下推斷，結果將是不可能如期舉行。一些與政府私交甚密的消息人士認為，如期舉行計畫將被證明是不可能，他們考慮下一個無人認領的夏季盛會-2032年奧運。其他消息人士認為，一旦冬季疫情平息和疫苗開始普及，障礙似乎就不這麼望而生畏。他們認為，公眾將會逐漸接受。無論哪種方式，日本都可能會迂迴地避免做出單方面的決定，以免被視為與世界作對。去年的推遲是在澳洲和加拿大等國宣布不派遣運動員之後決定。相反地，在1月下旬，澳洲國家委員會主席宣布：「東京奧運會開始，聖火將於2021年7月23日點燃。」如果有任何運動員確實站上起跑線，那麼這本身就是一件值得頒獎的英勇事蹟。 ■