自由貿易--美國經濟熱絡對世界各地意味什麼

 

Free exchange 自由貿易

What a hot American economy means for the rest of the world 

美國經濟熱絡對世界各地意味什麼

Trading partners will benefit. But the real uncertainty comes from the Fed 

貿易夥伴將受惠，但真正的不確定性來自聯準會

Finance & economics

Feb 20th 2021 edition

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WHEN AMERICA sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. But what happens when it runs a fever? After a trying 2020 in which GDP fell by 3.5%, America is poised to enjoy a robust rebound in 2021 simply by returning to something like normal as vaccination proceeds. Yet it might manage more than just that. If President Joe Biden’s covid-19 relief bill is enacted, total stimulus this year may exceed $2.5trn. That could easily push output above what the Congressional Budget Office estimates to be its “potential” level: that is, the amount the economy can produce without an increase in inflationary pressure. This possibility has some American economists on the lookout for signs of accelerating growth in prices and wages. America does not operate in a vacuum, however; should overheating occur, its effects will not be confined within its borders. Depending on how the recovery plays out, a hot American economy could be a boon for the rest of the world—or yet another source of concern.

美國一打噴嚏，世界各地就感冒，但是如果美國發燒會怎樣呢？在難熬的2020年GDP下降3.5％後，隨著疫苗接種持續進行，光靠經濟回到常態，2021年美國經濟即可準備享有強勁反彈。在嘗試過2020年GDP下降3.5％之後，美國準備在2021年享受強勁的反彈，只需在疫苗接種後經濟回到常態即可。然而，它可能會表現更好。如果總統拜登（Joe Biden）頒布新冠紓困法案，那麼今年的總刺激方案可能會超過2.5兆美元。這將輕易推動經濟產出超出美國國會預算局估計的「潛在」水準----即在不推升通膨壓力下，經濟可以生產的量。即在沒有通膨壓力推波助燃下的經濟產量。鑒於這種可能性，一些美國經濟學家正密切關注物價和工資上漲加速的跡象。一些美國經濟學家正在尋找物價和工資加速成長的跡象，來印證通膨可能性。但是，美國並非與世隔絕，如果經濟過熱，影響將不會僅侷限於境內。美國經濟熱絡可能造福世界各地，但也可能是另一憂慮的源頭，全看復甦如何發展而定。熱絡的美國經濟是世界各地的福音，或是另一個令人擔憂的源頭，將取決於其復甦的進展方式。

In a closed economy that does not trade with the rest of the world, too little spending leads to job losses and downward pressure on prices, whereas too much should push up employment and, eventually, prices. In an open economy, however, some of the effects of the shifts in demand spill over to the rest of the world. A sharp drop in spending, for instance, may be associated with plunging demand for imports, in which case some of the pain of a slump is exported abroad. During the global financial crisis of 2007-09, troubles in financial markets wreaked havoc all over the world, but even countries relatively insulated from those woes felt a chill thanks to trade links with America and Europe. According to one estimate, about a quarter of the drop in American demand and a fifth of the fall in European demand was borne by other economies, and transmitted through trade.

在不與他國貿易的封閉經濟體，支出太少會導致失業和物價下跌的壓力，而支出過多會推動就業，最終導致物價上漲。然而，在開放的經濟中，需求轉移的某些影響會蔓延到其他地區。例如，支出急劇下降可能與進口需求的驟跌有關，在這情況下，經濟衰落的痛苦會出口至國外。在2007-2009年的全球金融危機期間，全球金融市場的麻煩造成嚴重破壞，由於與歐美貿易聯繫，即使那些重災區較遠的國家也感受到蕭條。根據估計，美國需求下降的四分之一和歐洲需求下降的五分之一會通過貿易傳遞，由其他經濟體承擔。

A boost to demand ought to work in a similar way, but in the other direction. As Americans spend more, some of it leaks abroad: through purchases of foreign goods, for example, or spending on services—including tourism, which should begin to rebound as pandemic restrictions are lifted. An analysis of fiscal-policy spillovers published by the IMF in 2017 found that an American stimulus consisting mostly of spending (as opposed to tax cuts) and worth 1% of GDP raises the output of the average country by 0.33% in the first year. Countries with closer trade ties experience bigger effects; the fillip to Canada’s economy is estimated to be almost three times the average, for example. If the combination of reopening and stimulus invigorates the American consumer, the effects could quickly be felt all over the world.

需求增加應該也有類似的作用，只是方向相反。當美國人的消費增加，其中一些會溢出國外：例如，透過購買外國商品或旅遊等服務支出，隨著防疫禁令的鬆綁，旅遊消費應開始回升。國際貨幣基金（IMF）在2017年發布財政政策外溢效果分析，發現美國的刺激措施以支出為主，而不是減稅；價值相當於1% GDP的刺激方案，第一年將使一般國家的產出因此增加0.33%。貿易關係較緊密的國家會受更大影響，例如對加拿大經濟的振興估為平均的三倍。國際貨幣基金（IMF）在2017年發布財政政策外溢效果分析，發現構成大部分消費支出是美國的刺激政策，而不是減稅，且價值GDP的1％的刺激方案，第一年將提高平均國家產出的三分之一，貿易緊密的國家會產生更大的影響，例如對加拿大經濟的振興估為平均的三倍。如果重新開放搭配刺激政策鼓舞著美國消費者，那麼影響將很快地在世界各地顯現。

The degree to which it is felt, however, depends crucially on the policy response, both at home and abroad. Fiscal spillovers are more powerful when recipient countries are themselves operating below potential. American spending is thus more likely to spill over to the rest of the world if its recovery is much stronger than those of its trading partners. Ordinarily, spillovers provide a strong incentive for governments to co-ordinate their stimulus efforts—lest some tight-fisted economies (eg, those in Europe) free ride on the largesse leaking from more generous ones. Indeed, on February 12th Janet Yellen, America’s treasury secretary, urged her counterparts in the G7 group of countries to “go big” on stimulus, too. Countries that free ride could find themselves in hot water with Ms Yellen: the Biden administration has promised to be stern with countries that run large, persistent trade surpluses.

但是，感受的程度主要取決於國內外的政策反應。 當承受國本身的經濟成長低於潛能時，財政外溢效果更強大。當承受國本身的潛在執行力不足時，財政外溢效果將更強大。因此，如果美國的復甦比貿易夥伴強得多，那麼它的支出更有可能擴散到世界其他地區。通常，外溢效果為政府協調刺激措施提供強大的誘因-避免一些吝嗇的經濟體（例如歐洲某些國）在大手筆的資金釋出下搶占便宜。的確，在2月12日美國財政部長葉倫（Janet Yellen）敦促七大工業國也「大張旗鼓」地採取刺激措施。搭便車的國家可能會惹毛葉倫：拜登政府已承諾嚴厲對待巨額、持久貿易順差的國家。

But if America does come close to overheating, then a reluctance to spend elsewhere may be less irksome than usual, as demand-starved countries serve as a release valve for the pressure building up at home. Growth in global trade seems to have enhanced its pressure-relieving capabilities, according to work by Jane Ihrig, Steven Kamin, Deborah Lindner and Jaime Marquez of the Federal Reserve. They reckon that the expansion in trade has served to weaken the link between changes in domestic demand and corresponding shifts in total output, with net exports bearing more of the burden of adjustment to changes in domestic spending. In the late 1990s, for instance, measures of domestic demand grew even faster than real GDP (which was itself growing at a rapid clip). Inflation remained relatively subdued, however, in part because America’s current account deficit swelled. Similarly, a surge in imports this year might dissipate potential inflationary pressures in America while giving a lift to its weaker trade partners.

但是，如果美國確實接近過熱，那麼別國不願大舉支出，可能比平時較不惹人厭，因為需求不足的國家可充當國內壓力的釋放閥。但是，如果美國確實接近過熱，那麼不願意到處花費，麻煩可能會比平時少一些，因為需求不足的國家是國內壓力的釋放閥。聯準會（Fed）的伊里格（Jane Ihrig）、卡明（Steven Kamin）、林德納（Deborah Lindner）和馬奎茲（Jaime Marquez）研究表示，全球貿易成長似乎提升緩解壓力的能力。他們認為，貿易的擴大削弱了內需變化與總產出相對變化的關聯性，淨出口承擔更多國內支出變化的調整。例如，在1990年代後期，內需成長速度甚至超過實值GDP（其本身正快速增長）。通膨率維持相對溫和，部分原因是美國的經常帳赤字增加。同樣地，今年進口激增可能消除美國潛在的通膨壓力，同時也提振較弱的貿易夥伴。

Built to spillover 專為外溢而設計

The biggest uncertainty about the global effects of a hot American economy is the reaction of the Fed. Recent work by Kristin Forbes of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests that domestic inflation has become more responsive over time to global factors—including the amount of economic slack across the global economy as a whole. Yet wage inflation still seems to respond mostly to domestic conditions. The Fed might therefore shrug off price rises later this year, reckoning that short-run price pressures will not translate into sustained inflation until America’s job market, and the world economy, is fully recovered. A doveish Fed should make for a weaker dollar and easier financial conditions worldwide, adding to the boost that comes from Americans buying more goods from abroad.

美國經濟熱絡對全球影響，最大不確定性來自聯準會的反應。麻省理工學院的福布斯（Kristin Forbes）最近的研究表示，隨著時間推移，國內通膨對全球因素（包括整個全球經濟中不景氣的程度）的反應變得更迅速。然而，工資上漲似乎仍然主要反映國內情況。因此，聯準會可能會因此不理會今年後期的物價上漲，認為短期的物價壓力不會轉變為持續的通膨，除非美國的就業市場以及世界經濟完全復甦。聯準會偏鴿應會促使美元走軟和全球金融條件更寬鬆，這在美國人購買更多舶來品之外，再添一股助力。偏鴿的聯準會應使美元走軟和全球金融條件更加寬鬆，增加美國人購買更多國外商品的動力。

But a really rip-roaring economy could test the Fed’s patience, particularly if a yawning current account deficit and soaring asset prices cause it to worry about a build-up of financial risk. The spectre of American interest-rate hikes could frighten global markets, and force emerging economies to adopt less stimulative fiscal and monetary policies. A bit of demand spilling over from America would seem insignificant in comparison. That the Fed will suddenly turn hawkish still seems unlikely. But if America’s temperature runs high enough, the rest of the world may break out in cold sweats. ■

但真正咆哮的經濟可能考驗聯準會的耐心，特別是如果經常帳赤字激增和資產價格飛漲，造成聯準會擔心金融風險加劇。美國升息的魅影幢幢，可能嚇壞全球市場，並迫使新興經濟體採取刺激性較小的財政和貨幣政策。相形之下，從美國外溢的一些需求似乎微不足道。聯準會突然由鴿轉鷹似乎仍不太可能。但若美國體溫升得夠高，世界其他地方可能直冒冷汗。 ■

但真正喧嚷的經濟體可能會考驗聯準會的耐心，特別是如果經常帳赤字激增和資產價格飛漲，造成聯準會擔心金融風險加劇。對於美國升息的恐懼可能會嚇壞全球市場，並迫使新興經濟體採取刺激性較小的財政和貨幣政策。相比下，從美國外溢的一些需求似乎微不足道。聯準會突然變成鷹派似乎不太可能。但是，如果美國的體溫升的夠高，那麼世界其他地方可能會瞬間冒冷汗。 ■