聯合王國--大多數蘇格蘭人希望獨立，但他們缺乏取得獨立的手段

 

JANUARY 30, 2021

The United Kingdom 聯合王國

Most Scots want independence, but they lack the means to get it 

大多數蘇格蘭人希望獨立，但他們缺乏取得獨立的手段

The constitution is Westminster’s domain

憲法屬英國國會的領域

AS BORIS JOHNSON flew northward on January 28th to try to persuade the Scots of the value of the union, the land beneath him seemed ready to break apart. Many unionists think the United Kingdom is bound to disintegrate. Brexit has loosened the bonds between the four nations. More than twice as many Britons think Scotland will get independence in ten years than think the country will hold together (see chart). Fewer than half say they’d be upset.

當強生在1月28日搭機往北，試圖說服蘇格蘭了解統一的價值時，他下方的土地似乎已準備分裂。許多統派認為聯合王國註定要瓦解。英國脫歐鬆動四個王國之間的聯繫。英國認為「蘇格蘭將在十年內取得獨立」的人數，是認為「國家將團結在一起」人數的兩倍多，且不到一半的人說他們會感到難過。

The Scottish National Party (SNP) is expected to win a majority in elections to the Scottish Parliament in May, which it will use to seek a second referendum on separation. In the first ballot, held in 2014, Scots voted to remain in the UK, but a majority now consistently say they want independence. Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, has strong approval ratings; Mr Johnson does not. Brexit is causing havoc with the Scottish fishing industry. Scots think independence will leave them poorer, but like Brexit the project is a triumph of constitutional ideals over economic interest.

蘇格蘭民族黨（SNP）可望在5月的蘇格蘭議會選舉中贏得大多數議席，將挾這股民意尋求第二次獨立公投。蘇格蘭民族黨（SNP）預計將在5月的蘇格蘭議會選舉中贏得大多數議席，將尋求第二次獨立公投。在2014年舉行的第一次公投，蘇格蘭人投票決定繼續留在聯合王國，但現在大多數人不斷地表示希望獨立。 SNP黨魁史特金（Nicola Sturgeon）有強大的支持率，強生則沒有。英國脫歐給蘇格蘭漁業造成破壞。蘇格蘭人認為獨立將使他們更加貧窮，但是像英國脫歐一樣，這是憲法理想戰勝經濟利益的勝利。

And yet to Scottish Nationalists the United Kingdom looks vexingly robust. Despite support for independence, a mechanism to break up the UK lies frustratingly beyond reach. On January 24th, Michael Russell, the SNP minister responsible for the constitution, presented his impatient members with a new plan to force a referendum. Its chances of working are slim.

然而，對於蘇格蘭民族主義者而言，聯合王國顯得棘手地堅固。儘管支持獨立，但分裂聯合王國的機制仍然令人沮喪地遙不可及。 1月24日，SNP負責憲法的委員羅素（Michael Russell）向不耐煩的成員提出了一項強制公投的新計劃，它的可行性很小。

The reason is Britain’s constitutional law. There is no British equivalent of the EU’s Article 50, the secession clause any state can invoke. Rather, the Scotland Act, which created the Scottish Parliament, stipulates that the constitution is Westminster’s domain. David Cameron’s government granted permission for the 2014 referendum under a Section 30 order, a device which allows the Scottish Parliament to pass laws in areas normally reserved for Westminster. Mr Johnson says that he won’t grant such an order, and that the wait between Britain’s referendums on Europe in 1975 and 2016 is “a good sort of gap”—suggesting no Scottish vote until 2055.

原因在英國的憲法。英國沒有相對等歐盟第50條約--任何國家都可以援引退出的條款。相反地，創建蘇格蘭議會的《蘇格蘭法》明定，憲法屬西敏寺的領域。卡麥隆政府根據第30條命令授予2014年公投的許可，允許蘇格蘭議會通過法律，該權利為英國國會「保留事項」。強生說，他不會授與這樣的許可，而且從1975年至2016年英國對歐洲舉行公投之間的等待存在「相當大的間隔」，建議直到2055年再進行蘇格蘭投票。

Yet the government is alarmed at support for independence, and is drawing up a strategy to reinforce the union. Mr Johnson used his visit to praise the role of Whitehall and the British Army getting covid-19 vaccines to Scotland. He faces none of the pressure from within his party to hold a vote which Mr Cameron did on Europe. A prolonged independence rift in Scotland would allow the Tories to scoop up the votes of pro-union Scots.

然而，政府對支持獨立感到擔憂，並正計劃強化統一性的戰略。強生利用訪問大力稱讚英國白廳和英軍向蘇格蘭運送新冠疫苗的角色。他沒有任何黨內壓力要求舉行投票，不像在卡麥隆對歐洲所做的。蘇格蘭長期的獨立裂痕，將使保守黨獲得支持統一的蘇格蘭人選票。

Many nationalists know this. Their fears that independence will slip through their fingers if Mr Johnson holds firm were aired at an online meeting on January 22nd of All Under One Banner, a group which organises marches for independence. Some speakers called for strikes and protests outside the SNP’s headquarters; others accused the party leadership of growing too comfortable with devolution. Angus MacNeil, the SNP MP for the Western Isles, reckons Mr Johnson would be “a mug” to agree to a referendum now, and says the SNP should simply use May’s election as a ballot on independence. Joanna Cherry, a potential successor to Ms Sturgeon, argues that Irish independence was won after Sinn Fein MPs won a majority in Ireland, meaning no referendum is necessary. Some activists see precedents in how Kosovo and Lithuania split with their masters.

許多民族主義者知道這點，他們害怕如果 1月22日獨立遊行組織「團結在一面旗幟下」線上會議，強生的堅持被宣告，獨立的機會將從指縫中溜走。一些人號招在SNP總部外罷工和抗議；其他人則指責黨內領導層對權力下放變得過度安逸。西部群島的SNP議員麥克尼爾（Angus MacNeil）認為，強生現在同意公投徒勞無益，並表示SNP應該單純地將5月選舉當作對獨立意向的投票。史特金的潛在繼任者切裡（Joanna Cherry）辯稱，新芬黨（Sinn Fein）議員在愛爾蘭獲得多數選票之後，愛爾蘭取得獨立，這意味著無須公投。一些行動主義者看到科索沃和立陶宛如何脫離原統治國的先例。

Such talk makes Ms Sturgeon’s team wince. She insists any referendum must be beyond legal question. If not, it is a dead end; the EU, which an independent Scotland would seek to join, would ignore the result. So would the British government, with which it would need to haggle over fishing grounds and pensions in lengthy divorce talks. “We don’t get endless shots at this,” says a party figure. The deadlock which followed Catalonia’s unsanctioned referendum in 2017 serves as a warning.

這類談話使史特金的團隊皺眉。她堅持任何公投都必須在法律之上。如果不是這樣，那將是個死胡同。蘇格蘭獨立後將尋求加入的歐盟將忽略此結果。英國政府也是如此，在漫長的離婚談判中，英國政府將就捕魚場和養老金問題討價還價。一位政黨人士說：「我們不會為此無休止地出手。」加泰隆尼亞在2017年未經批准的公投後陷入僵局，這是一個警告。

Mr Russell’s plan seeks to navigate between the frustration of his members and the constraints of the Scotland Act. If the SNP wins in May, it will ask Mr Johnson’s government again for a Section 30 order. If Mr Johnson refuses, the Scottish Parliament would pass a referendum bill anyway, and dare the British government to challenge it in the Supreme Court.

羅素的計劃旨在成員的挫敗與《蘇格蘭法》的制約之間給予方向。如果SNP贏得5月選舉，他將再次向強生政府申請第30條的命令。如果強生拒絕，蘇格蘭議會無論如何都會通過公投法案，並膽敢於最高法院向英國政府提出質疑。

Mr Russell’s scheme will probably unite the independence movement until May’s elections, says an SNP hand, “but it doesn’t really have legs beyond that.” The British government thinks that whatever the result of the elections, the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to call a referendum; and if the Supreme Court looked likely to rule in the Scottish government’s favour, the UK Parliament could swiftly change the law to nix the vote.

一名SNP人士說，羅素的計劃可能將團結獨立運動直到5月大選，「但除此之外它確實站不住腳。」英國政府認為，無論選舉結果如何，蘇格蘭議會均無權舉行公投；如果最高法院似乎有可能裁定蘇格蘭政府勝訴，英國議會可以迅速修改法律以禁止投票。

Alternatively, London could call the nationalists’ bluff and dare Ms Sturgeon to push ahead with the unrecognised referendum she has sought to avoid. Douglas Ross, the leader of the Scottish Tories, said he’d boycott any “unofficial” poll. Scotland’s constitutional divisions risk becoming sharper if the two governments cannot even agree on the rules for settling them, notes Stephen Tierney, a professor of constitutional theory at Edinburgh University.

另外，倫敦可聲稱民族主義者虛張聲勢，並質疑史特金持續推動未被認可的公投，這是她應避免的。蘇格蘭保守黨的領導人羅斯（Douglas Ross）說，他將抵制任何「非正式」的民意調查。愛丁堡大學憲法理論教授蒂爾尼（Stephen Tierney）指出，如果兩個政府甚至無法就解決問題的規則達成共識，蘇格蘭的憲法分歧有變得更加尖銳的風險。

Whatever happens in May, it is a difficult moment for Ms Sturgeon’s leadership. An inquiry is probing what she knew about allegations of sexual assault against her predecessor, Alex Salmond, who was later acquitted in court. If Mr Johnson digs in, or the Supreme Court rules in his favour, demands for independence may grow, making separation only a matter of time until a future British prime minister gives in. But it is equally possible that the cause will deflate as Brexit settles, and Scots’ focus turns to the state of their schools and hospitals after 14 years of SNP government.

無論5月結局如何，對史特金的領導地位來說，這是個艱難的時刻。一項正在進行的調查她對前黨魁薩蒙德（Alex Salmond）性侵指控知道什麼，薩蒙德後來在法庭上宣告無罪。如果強生介入，或最高法院做出有利於他的裁決，獨立的呼聲可能喧囂塵上，使分離僅是時間的問題，直到未來的英國首相屈服為止。但隨著英國脱歐落幕，這原因也有可能消退。 SNP執政14年後，蘇格蘭人的注意力紛轉向學校和醫院。

Far from being inevitable, the break-up of the UK would be historically remarkable. Since the SNP’s birth in 1934 more than 100 states have secured independence. Almost all were born of war, decolonisation or economic collapse. Breaking away from a prosperous democracy in peacetime is another matter. “There are plenty of examples of nationalist movements in advanced democratic countries, but none of these has led to independence,” notes Nicola McEwen, a professor of territorial politics at Edinburgh University. The SNP has set itself the unusual task of dismantling the British state within the constraints of a legal order that is stacked in its opponents’ favour. It wants revolution, without breaking so much as a window.■

英國的分裂將寫下非凡地的歷史，但也並非不可避免。自1934年SNP成立以來，已有100多個州取得穩固的獨立，幾乎所有獨立都是戰爭、脫離殖民或經濟崩潰下的產物。但在和平時期擺脫繁榮的民主又是另一回事。愛丁堡大學領土政治學教授麥克尤恩（Nicola McEwen）指出：「在先進民主國家，有很多民族主義運動的例子，但沒有一個導致獨立。」 SNP為自己設下一個不尋常的任務，即在備受反對者青睞的合法命令約束下分拆英國。它想要革命，但不必打破窗戶。■