每日圖表--溫室氣體排放量在2021年將迅速增加

 

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Greenhouse-gas emissions are set to rise fast in 2021 溫室氣體排放量在2021年將迅速增加

Last year’s decline, caused by the pandemic, will probably be short-lived

去年因疫病流行造成下降可能是短暫的

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Apr 20th 2021

A YEAR AGO, as countries locked down amid spiralling covid-19 infections and deaths, some environmentalists heralded a potential silver lining to the pandemic: a decline in the world’s use of fossil fuels, and therefore greenhouse-gas emissions. Indeed, global energy-related carbon emissions fell by 5.8% in 2020, or nearly 2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, thanks to reduced demand for oil, coal and gas. Such a reduction, alone, would have no long-term impact on global temperatures, which depend on cumulative emissions in the atmosphere. But the hope among climate optimists was that falling emissions might cause a further shift away from fossil fuels towards cleaner energy sources.

一年前，各國由於新冠病毒感染和死亡人數激增而實施封鎖，一些環保主義者預示對此流行病的一絲慰藉：世界對化石燃料的使用減少，進而導致溫室氣體排放量下降。的確，由於對石油、煤炭和天然氣的需求減少，全球能源相關碳排量在2020年下降了5.8％，即減少近20億公噸的二氧化碳。單憑如此，就不會對全球溫度造成長期影響，全球溫度取決於大氣中的累積排放量。但是，氣候樂觀主義者的希望是碳排量的下降將導致進一步轉變，從化石燃料邁向清潔能源。

A new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), an intergovernmental forecaster, suggests that this hope may have been misplaced. In its latest Global Energy Review, the IEA predicts that energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions will rise by 1.5 gigatonnes to 33 gigatonnes in 2021, an increase of almost 5%. In absolute terms this would be the largest increase since 2010 when, after the global financial crisis of 2007-09, governments poured cash into carbon-intensive projects in an effort to pull their economies out of recession.

跨國預測機構國際能源署（IEA）的最新報告指出，這種希望可能錯誤寄託。IEA在最新的《全球能源評論》預測，能源相關的碳排量將在2021年增加15億噸至330億噸，增長近5％。在絕對數據上看，這將是自2010年以來的最大增幅，在2007至2009年全球金融危機之後，各國政府向碳密集項目砸錢，努力拉升經濟擺脫衰退。

Most of the increase in emissions predicted for 2021 will be driven by a dramatic rebound in the burning of coal, particularly in China. The IEA thinks global demand for coal will approach the peak of 2014. It also expects global demand for natural gas to exceed the level of 2019. Demand for both fuels will be pushed up by higher consumption once vaccination roll-outs cause societies to open back up. Oil will also rebound, though at a slower rate because of the sluggish recovery of aviation. All told, emissions will be slightly lower in 2021 than before the pandemic, but are likely to quickly exceed 2019 levels once lingering coronavirus restrictions—such as limits on international travel—are lifted.

由於燃煤燃燒的急劇反彈帶動，預計2021年碳排量將大幅增加，尤其是在中國。 IEA認為，全球對煤炭的需求將接近2014年的高峰，也預估全球對天然氣的需求將超過2019年的水平。一旦推出疫苗接種導致社會重新開放，這兩種燃料的需求將被更高的消費量推升向上。石油也將反彈，但速度比較緩慢，因為航空業復甦遲緩。總而言之，2021年的碳排量將比疫病流行前略低，但一旦解除殘餘的防疫限制（例如對國際旅行設限），碳排量可能迅速超過2019年的水準。

The IEA expects renewable-energy generation to rise, too. In 2021 renewable sources will account for 30% of global electricity, its largest ever share. Wind and solar power is on track for its largest rise in history. But even these achievements will be eclipsed by the increased use of fossil fuels to meet global energy demand, which is expected to grow by 4.6%.

IEA預計再生能源發電量也將增加。到2021年，再生能源將占全球電力的30％，這是歷來最大的比例。風能和太陽能有望實現史上最大的增長。但就連這些成就也會相形見絀，因為要滿足全球能源需求，化石燃料用量增幅會更大，預計將成長4.6％。

If such predictions are borne out, 2020 will have been little more than a temporary dip in the world’s emissions, not a turning-point. For Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, this is evidence that not nearly enough is being done to protect the environment as the world emerges from the pandemic. “This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the Covid crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate,” Mr Birol said. “Unless governments around the world move rapidly to start cutting emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022.”

如果這些預測得到證實，那麼2020年世界碳排量僅是暫時下降，而不是轉折點。對IEA署長畢洛而言，這證明在世界逐漸擺脫疫情的此刻，保護環境的努力遠遠不夠。「這是一個可怕的警告，目前經濟從新冠危機中復甦，但無助於我們的氣候永續。」畢洛說。「除非世界各國政府迅速採取行動開始削減碳排，否則我們很可能在2022年面臨更糟的情況。」