電子錢幣的崛起--重要的數位貨幣

 

The rise of e-money  電子錢幣的崛起

The digital currencies that matter

重要的數位貨幣

Get ready for Fedcoin and the e-euro 準備迎接數位美元和電子歐元

 

NONE MAY 08, 2021

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE is upending finance. Bitcoin has gone from being an obsession of anarchists to a $1trn asset class that many fund managers insist belongs in any balanced portfolio. Swarms of digital day-traders have become a force on Wall Street. PayPal has 392m users, a sign that America is catching up with China’s digital-payments giants. Yet, as our special report explains, the least noticed disruption on the frontier between technology and finance may end up as the most revolutionary: the creation of government digital currencies, which typically aim to let people deposit funds directly with a central bank, bypassing conventional lenders.

科技變革正在顛覆金融領域。比特幣已從對無政府主義者的迷戀，變成一種價值1兆美元的資產類別，許多基金經理人堅持比特幣屬於任何平衡投資組合。大群的線上當沖交易者已成為華爾街的一股力量。 PayPal擁有3.92億用戶，象徵著美國正在迎頭趕上中國的數位支付巨擘。然而，正如我們的特別報告所解釋的，在科技與金融間的邊界上鮮為人知的破壞，可能最終形成最大的革命：創建政府數位貨幣，通常目的是讓人們繞過傳統的放款者，直接向中央銀行存入資金。

These “govcoins” are a new incarnation of money. They promise to make finance work better but also to shift power from individuals to the state, alter geopolitics and change how capital is allocated. They are to be treated with optimism, and humility.

這些「政府數位貨幣」是金錢的新化身。他們承諾使金融體系運作更良好，但也將權力從個人轉移到國家、改變地緣政治及資本的分配方式。他們應被樂觀和恭敬地看待。

A decade or so ago, amid the wreckage of Lehman Brothers, Paul Volcker, a former head of the Federal Reserve, grumbled that banking’s last useful innovation was the ATM. Since the crisis, the industry has raised its game. Banks have modernised their creaking IT systems. Entrepreneurs have built an experimental world of “decentralised finance”, of which bitcoin is the most famous part and which contains a riot of tokens, databases and conduits that interact to varying degrees with traditional finance. Meanwhile, financial “platform” firms now have over 3bn customers who use e-wallets and payments apps. Alongside PayPal are other specialists such as Ant Group, Grab and Mercado Pago, established firms such as Visa, and Silicon Valley wannabes such as Facebook.

大約十年前，在雷曼兄弟造成殘骸中，美國聯準會（Fed）前主席沃克抱怨，銀行業最沒用的創新是自動櫃員機（ATM）。自危機來，銀行業提高競爭力，將老舊的IT系統現代化。創業家建立一個「去中心化金融」的實驗性世界，比特幣是其中最廣為人知的一部分，它包含大量的代幣、資料庫和渠道，與傳統金融發生不同程度交互影響。同時，金融「平台」公司現在擁有超過30億客戶使用電子錢包和支付App。除PayPal之外，還有其他佼佼者，如螞蟻集團、Grab和Mercado Pago，發展完備的公司如Visa，以及矽谷的夢想家如Facebook。

Government or central-bank digital currencies are the next step but they come with a twist, because they would centralise power in the state rather than spread it through networks or give it to private monopolies. The idea behind them is simple. Instead of holding an account with a retail bank, you would do so direct with a central bank through an interface resembling apps such as Alipay or Venmo. Rather than writing cheques or paying online with a card, you could use the central bank’s cheap plumbing. And your money would be guaranteed by the full faith of the state, not a fallible bank. Want to buy a pizza or help a broke sibling? No need to deal with Citigroup’s call centre or pay Mastercard’s fees: the Bank of England and the Fed are at your service.

政府或央行的數位貨幣是下一階段，但有一個轉折，因為它們將把權力集中在國家，而不是透過網路分散或交由私人壟斷。它們背後的想法很簡單。你不需要在零售銀行開戶，而是通過類似支付寶或Venmo等App的介面直接與央行開戶。您不必簽支票或信用卡在線付款，而可以使用央行低成本的管道。你的錢將由國家給予強大的信心保證，而不是易出錯的銀行。想要購買披薩或幫助破產的兄弟姐妹嗎？無需與花旗集團的客服中心打交道，也無需支付萬事達卡的費用：英格蘭銀行和美國聯準會隨時為你服務。

This metamorphosis of central banks from the aristocrats of finance to its labourers sounds far-fetched, but it is under way. Over 50 monetary authorities, representing the bulk of global GDP, are exploring digital currencies. The Bahamas has issued digital money. China has rolled out its e-yuan pilot to over 500,000 people. The EU wants a virtual euro by 2025, Britain has launched a task-force, and America, the world’s financial hegemon, is building a hypothetical e-dollar.

央行從金融貴族完全改變成勞工階級，聽起來似乎很牽強，但它正在進行中。50多個貨幣機構代表著全球龐大GDP，正在探索數位貨幣。巴哈馬已發行數位錢幣。中國數位人民幣試點已推行至50多萬人口。歐盟希望到2025年實現歐元虛擬化，英國成立了特別工作小組，世界金融霸主美國正在打造虛擬電子美元。

One motivation for governments and central banks is a fear of losing control. Today central banks harness the banking system to amplify monetary policy. If payments, deposits and loans migrate from banks into privately run digital realms, central banks will struggle to manage the economic cycle and inject funds into the system during a crisis. Unsupervised private networks could become a Wild West of fraud and privacy abuses.

政府和央行的動機之一是擔心失去控制權。當今央行靠駕馭銀行體系來延展貨幣政策。如果付款、存款和貸款從銀行遷移到私人經營的數位領域，那麼央行將難以管理經濟性周期，也難在危機期間向系統注入資金。無人監督的私人網絡可能會成為欺詐和侵犯隱私的蠻荒之地。

The other motivation is the promise of a better financial system. Ideally money provides a reliable store of value, a stable unit of account and an efficient means of payment. Today’s money gets mixed marks. Uninsured depositors can suffer if banks fail, bitcoin is not widely accepted and credit cards are expensive. Government e-currencies would score highly, since they are state-guaranteed and use a cheap, central payments hub.

另一個動機是承諾更好的金融體系。理想情況下，貨幣能提供可靠的價值儲蓄、穩定的帳戶單位和有效的付款方式。如今的貨幣褒貶不一。如果銀行倒閉，比特幣沒有被廣泛接受且信用卡成本昂貴，那麼沒有保險的儲戶可能會遭受損失。政府電子貨幣將獲得很高的評價，因為它們由國家擔保，並使用低廉中央支付系統。

As a result, govcoins could cut the operating expenses of the global financial industry, which amount to over $350 a year for every person on Earth. That could make finance accessible for the 1.7bn people who lack bank accounts. Government digital currencies could also expand governments’ toolkits by letting them make instant payments to citizens and cut interest rates below zero. For ordinary users, the appeal of a free, safe, instant, universal means of payment is obvious.

如此一來，政府數位貨幣能減少全球金融業的營運費用，這對全球每個人每年大約花費350美元以上。這使金融服務伸展到缺乏銀行帳戶的17億人口。政府數位貨幣還可以擴大政府的工具包，向公民即時支付並將利息降低至零。對於一般用戶而言，免費、安全、即時、通用的付款方式的誘因顯而易見。

It is this appeal, though, that creates dangers. Unconstrained, govcoins could fast become a dominant force in finance, particularly if network effects made it hard for people to opt out. They could destabilise banks, because if most people and firms stashed their cash at the central banks, lenders would have to find other sources of funding with which to back their loans.

但正是這種吸引力造成危險。不受約束的政府數位貨幣可以迅速成為金融的主導力量，特別是如果網路效應使人們難以選擇退出，它們可能使銀行體系不穩定，因為如果大多數人和公司將現金都存在央行，放貸者將不得不尋找其他資金來源來支持貸款。

If retail banks were sucked dry of funding, someone else would have to do the lending that fuels business creation. This raises the queasy prospect of bureaucrats influencing credit allocation. In a crisis, a digital stampede of savers to the central bank could cause bank runs.

如果零售銀行籌資被吸乾，有些公司又不得不靠借錢來推動業務發展。這將提高官僚影響信貸分配的不安前景。危機來臨時，儲戶對央行的數位恐慌性竄逃可能導致銀行擠兌。

Once ascendant, govcoins could become panopticons for the state to control citizens: think of instant e-fines for bad behaviour. They could alter geopolitics, too, by providing a conduit for cross-border payments and alternatives to the dollar, the world’s reserve currency and a linchpin of American influence. The greenback’s reign is based partly on America’s open capital markets and property rights, which China cannot rival. But it also relies on old payments systems, invoicing conventions and inertia—making it ripe for disruption. Small countries fear that, instead of using local money, people might switch to foreign e-currencies, causing chaos at home.

政府數位貨幣一旦崛起，可能成為國家控制公民的環形監獄：思考一下即時電子罰款的不良影響，他們也能改變地緣政治，提供跨境支付管道及替代渠道轉換成美元--全球儲備貨幣和美國影響力的關鍵。美元的統治地位部分基於美國的開放資本市場和房地產權，中國無法與之抗衡。但是，它也依賴於舊的支付系統、簽發貨單的慣例與慣性，從而使其適應崩盤。小國擔心人民可能因為國內動亂，而轉換成國外電子貨幣。

New money, new problems 新錢幣，新問題

Such a vast spectrum of opportunities and dangers is daunting. It is revealing that China’s autocrats, who value control above all else, are limiting the size of the e-yuan and clamping down on private platforms such as Ant. Open societies should also proceed cautiously by, say, capping digital-currency accounts.

如此眾多的機遇和危險令人生畏。這顯示，中國獨裁者重視控制權高於一切，正限制數位人民幣的規模，並壓制如螞蟻集團等的私人平台。自由國家也應該謹慎行事，例如限制數位貨幣帳戶。

Governments and financial firms need to prepare for a long-term shift in how money works, as momentous as the leap to metallic coins or payment cards. That means beefing up privacy laws, reforming how central banks are run and preparing retail banks for a more peripheral role. State digital currencies are the next great experiment in finance, and they promise to be a lot more consequential than the humble ATM. ■

政府和金融公司需為貨幣運作的長期轉變做好準備，就像金屬硬幣或卡片支付的大躍進一樣重要。這意味要加強個資法、改革央行的運作方式，讓零售銀行準備好扮演更次要的角色。國家數位貨幣是金融領域的下一個重大實驗，它們承諾將比謙遜的ATM帶來更大的影響。 ■