貓熊的力量--日本強大的派閥努力在取悅中國

  

 

Panda power 貓熊的力量

A powerful faction in Japan strives to keep China sweet

日本強大的派閥努力在取悅中國

NONE MAY 01, 2021

THERE ARE no fewer than seven pandas at the Adventure World zoo in Wakayama, a mountainous region in central Japan. After the latest cub was born in November, Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry known for his pugnacious tweets, went all gooey: “It will be a witness of the friendship between China and Japan.” That may be wishful thinking. But the prevalence of the rare bears in Wakayama certainly bears witness to the clout of Nikai Toshihiro, one of the prefecture’s representatives in the Diet and one of China’s best friends in Japan.

日本中部群山環繞和歌山縣，有不少於七隻貓熊在冒險世界動物園。小貓熊11月誕生後，推特上好戰出了名的中國外交部發言人趙立堅滿口甜言蜜語說：「這將見證中日友誼。」那可能是一廂情願的想法。但是和歌山稀有貓熊的盛行，無疑見證了二階俊博的影響力，二階俊博是日本國會代表，也是中國在日本最好的朋友。

Mr Nikai is the secretary-general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), second in rank only to its leader, Suga Yoshihide, who is also the prime minister. He wields immense influence over the party’s candidates, legislative agenda and budget. He has held the job for longer than anyone in the party’s 65-year history.

二階俊博是執政的自民黨幹事長，地位僅次於黨魁暨首相菅義偉。他對黨內候選人、立法議程和預算擁有巨大的影響力。在自民黨65年歷史，他擔任祕書長的時間比任何人都來得長。

Mr Nikai is also Japan’s most prominent advocate of friendlier ties with China. The two neighbours have a series of long-simmering disputes, over everything from Japan’s half-hearted contrition for its atrocities during the second world war to a territorial dispute over some tiny specks in the East China Sea. But plenty of powerful Japanese, especially among business people, would prefer to be on better terms. China buys some 22% of Japan’s exports, more than America’s 18%. Hong Kong absorbs another 5%. Japan needs “a more harmonious relationship with China”, says Nakanishi Hiroaki, the head of Keidanren, Japan’s biggest business lobby. As Seguchi Kiyoyuki, a former head of the central bank’s office in Beijing, argues, “The US is father and China is mother—we cannot choose.”

這兩個鄰國紛爭由來已久，從日本對二戰暴行悔過有口無心，到東海小島領土爭端，林林總總。 但許多日本權貴，尤其是商界人士，都寧願兩國改善關係。中國購買22％日本出口的產品，超過美國的18％，香港貢獻另外5％。日本最大的商業遊說團體、經濟團體聯合會會長中西宏明說，日本需要「與中國建立更和諧的關係」。正如日本央行北京事務所前所長瀨口清之主張：「美國是父親，中國是母親，我們無法選擇。」

Mr Nikai tends to echo such sentiments. Born in 1939 in Gobo, a small city in Wakayama prefecture, he came of age in an era when backroom dealmaking was the norm in Japan. He is a skilled practitioner of “ryoteipolitics”, says Nakabayashi Mieko of Waseda University, referring to the posh restaurants where Japanese powerbrokers gather in private rooms to resolve matters of business and state out of the public eye.

二階俊博傾向附和這種觀點。他出生在1939年和歌山縣一個小城御坊市，且在日本密室操盤很普遍的時代茁壯成長。早稻田大學的中林美惠子說，他是「料亭政治」的實踐者，意指日本政治掮客聚在豪華餐廳包廂喬政商事務，遠離公眾視線。

Whereas younger politicians focus on public relations, Mr Nikai concentrates on human relationships, says Iio Jun of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. He used to run the powerful Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which helped him not only to build ties with big business, but also to gather a loyal following within the LDP. In 2016 the prime minister of the day, Abe Shinzo, tapped him to become its secretary-general, in part to keep him from throwing his weight behind a rival candidate for leadership of the party.

東京國立政策研究大學的飯尾潤說，年輕的政治家關注社會關係，而二階俊博則專注於人際關係。他曾經擔任位高權重的經濟、貿易及產業大臣，這不僅幫助他與大企業建立聯繫，而且有助在自民黨內聚集忠實的追隨者。 2016年時任首相安倍晉三欽點他為幹事長，部分原因是為了避免他鼎力支持對手競選黨魁。

That perch helped make Mr Nikai a kingmaker when Mr Abe unexpectedly resigned owing to ill health last year. Mr Suga was not seen as a successor, but Mr Nikai marshalled support for him. “He feels that he made the Suga administration, so he feels perhaps equal to Suga, or even higher than him,” says Shinohara Fumiya, a commentator close to Mr Nikai. His continued backing is essential to Mr Suga’s survival, though deference to Mr Nikai has also damaged Mr Suga’s standing. Mr Nikai promoted an ill-considered subsidy for domestic tourism that helped spread the pandemic. In an embarrassing reversal, Mr Suga had to scrap the idea.

這一高位助使二階俊博成為造王者，當安倍晉三去年因身體欠佳而意外辭職時，菅義偉並未被視為接班人，但二階俊博引領對他的支持。 熟悉二階俊博的評論者篠原文也說，「對他來說，他覺得自己一手造成了菅義偉政府，所以他覺得自己與菅義偉平等，或甚至高於他。」他的持續支持對菅義偉的生存至關重要，儘管服從二階俊博也損害了菅義偉的地位。 二階俊博對國內旅遊業推行一項思慮欠佳的補貼，這種補貼幫助散播疫情。在令人尷尬的挫折後，菅義偉不得不打消這個念頭。

Among Mr Nikai’s causes, none counts for more than relations with China. For many Japanese of his generation, a sense of guilt about the war bred an eagerness to help China develop. Ancient cultural ties serve as another impetus to get along. “It’s China’s cultural power that first bought Nikai,” reckons Miura Lully, a political scientist in Tokyo.

在二階俊博的志業中，沒有比中日關係更重要的。對他這一代的許多日本人來說，對戰爭的內咎產生幫助中國發展的渴望。古老的文化淵源提供和睦相處的另一動力。東京政治學家三浦琉麗認為：「是中國文化力量最先讓二階俊博信服。」

Yet it is China’s economic power that has kept Mr Nikai enthralled. He began taking big delegations of businessmen to China as early as 2000. His long-term relationships with Chinese leaders make him a “rarity” these days, says Yu Tiejun of Peking University. “Diplomacy depends on human relationships to a great extent; trust is the most important thing. We cannot find many people like him who could be trusted by this side.”

然而，讓二階俊博深深著迷的，卻是中國的經濟實力。北京大學的于鐵軍說，他早在2000年就開始帶領大型商業代表團訪華。他與中國領導人的長期關係使他如今變得「稀有」。 「外交在很大程度取決於人際關係；信任是最重要的事。像他這樣可受我方信任的人，找不到幾個（寥寥無幾）。」

Those ties proved useful when Sino-Japanese relations hit a nadir in the early 2010s. As tension over the disputed islands threatened to flare into open conflict, China banned exports of important industrial materials to Japan and angry mobs ransacked Japanese car showrooms in China. But Mr Nikai kept talking and travelling. “We need to be able to talk to the Chinese, and Mr Nikai is an asset,” says Miyake Kunihiko, a former diplomat and special adviser to Mr Suga. When Mr Abe moved to calm relations in 2017, Mr Nikai delivered a letter from him to Xi Jinping, China’s president. “He played a role as the bridge between Abe and Xi,” says Kawashima Shin of the University of Tokyo. In the trip’s wake, bilateral trade flourished and the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan leapt. Mr Abe made plans to receive Mr Xi on a state visit to Tokyo.

2010年初中日關係在跌至最低點時，這些維繫被證明是有用的。由於爭議島嶼的緊張局勢，戰爭威脅一觸即發，中國禁止向日本出口重要的工業材料，憤怒的暴民洗劫日本在中國的汽車展列室。但是，二階俊博不斷對話和奔走。菅義偉的前外交官兼特別顧問官家邦彥說：「我們需要能夠與中國人對話，而二階俊博是一種資產。」2017年安倍試圖緩和兩國關係時，二階俊博為他送信給中國國家主席習近平。東京大學的川島真說：「他扮演了安倍與習近平之間橋樑的角色。」在此行之後，雙邊貿易蓬勃發展，訪日的中國遊客數量猛增。安倍制定計畫接待習近平到東京進行國事訪問。

But tensions between the two countries are rising again, testing the limits of Mr Nikai’s influence. China’s recent abuses in Hong Kong and Xinjiang and its growing hostility to Taiwan have made moderation harder to sell. Separating business from security is becoming trickier, too, as the line between them becomes more blurred. Calls are growing in Japan for Mr Xi’s visit (which was postponed because of covid-19) to be cancelled and for Japan to adopt Western sanctions on China.

但兩國之間的緊張局勢再次升溫，考驗二階俊博影響力的極限。中國最近在香港和新疆的暴行，以及對台灣的敵對情緒日益增強，使得溫和理念難以推銷。將國安從商業分離也愈來愈難，因為界線變得愈來愈模糊，習近平的訪問因新冠疫情而推遲，愈來愈多的日本民眾呼籲取消，並要求日本跟進西方制裁中國。

After a recent summit, President Joe Biden and Mr Suga issued a joint statement supporting Taiwan, which the two countries have never before done. Mr Zhao has complained that Japan is acting as a “vassal” of America. “Nikai has hot lines to the Chinese side, but even such hot lines cannot solve territorial issues,” says Mr Kawashima. The pandas in Wakayama are not gifts, he notes, but merely on loan. ■

在最近的峰會後，美總統拜登和菅義偉發表支持台灣的聯合聲明，這是兩國從未有過的。趙立堅抱怨說，日本的言行舉止有如美國的「附庸國」。 川島真說：「二階俊博擁有直通中國的熱線電話，但即使這樣的熱線也無法解決領土問題。」他指出，和歌山的熊貓不是贈禮，只是借來的。 ■