超級大國政治--地球上最危險的地方

 NONE MAY 01, 2021

Superpower politics 超級大國政治

The most dangerous place on Earth 地球上最危險的地方

America and China must work harder to avoid war over the future of Taiwan 美中必須更努力避免因台灣的未來而發動戰爭

 

THE TEST of a first-rate intelligence, wrote F. Scott Fitzgerald, is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function. For decades just such an exercise of high-calibre ambiguity has kept the peace between America and China over Taiwan, an island of 24m people, 100 miles (160km) off China’s coast. Leaders in Beijing say there is only one China, which they run, and that Taiwanis a rebellious part of it. America nods to the one China idea, but has spent 70 years ensuring there are two.

弗茲傑羅寫道，一流智慧的試金石，是腦中能兼容兩種相反觀念，還能維持正常運作。數十年來，藉著這種高素質模擬兩可的做法，維持了美中之間持續對台灣議題的和平。台灣是一個2,400萬人口的島嶼，距中國海岸僅100英里（160公里）。北京歷屆領導人說只有一個中國，即他們治理的那個，台灣則是其叛離的一部分。美國贊同一個中國的想法，但花了70年來確保其實為二。

Today, however, this strategic ambiguity is breaking down. The United States is coming to fear that it may no longer be able to deter China from seizing Taiwan by force. Admiral Phil Davidson, who heads the Indo-Pacific Command, told Congress in March that he worried about China attacking Taiwan as soon as 2027.

但如今這種戰略性的模擬兩可正在瓦解。美國開始擔心它可能不再能夠阻止中國武力奪取台灣。印太部司令、海軍上將戴維森在3月告訴國會，他擔心中國最快在2027年襲擊台灣。

War would be a catastrophe, and not only because of the bloodshed in Taiwan and the risk of escalation between two nuclear powers. One reason is economic. The island lies at the heart of the semiconductor industry. TSMC, the world’s most valuable chipmaker, etches 84% of the most advanced chips. Were production at TSMC to stop, so would the global electronics industry, at incalculable cost. The firm’s technology and know-how are perhaps a decade ahead of its rivals’, and it will take many years of work before either America or China can hope to catch up.

戰爭將是一場大災難，不光是因為台灣將血流成河，以及兩個核武強權間的風險驟升，原因之一在於經濟。台灣位於半導體產業的心臟地帶。全球最有價值的晶片製造廠台積電，蝕刻84％的最尖端晶片。一旦台積電生產中止，而全球電子業也會跟著停擺，損失成本難以計算。該公司的技術和專業可能領先競爭對手十年，而且美國或中國需花費很多年才能望其項背。

The bigger reason is that Taiwan is an arena for the rivalry between China and America. Although the United States is not treaty-bound to defend Taiwan, a Chinese assault would be a test of America’s military might and its diplomatic and political resolve. If the Seventh Fleet failed to turn up, China would overnight become the dominant power in Asia. America’s allies around the world would know that they could not count on it. Pax Americana would collapse.

更嚴峻的原因是，台灣是中美競爭的舞台。儘管美國不受條約約束的保衛台灣，但中國動武將考驗美國軍力及其外交和政治決心。一旦第七艦隊沒有現身，中國將在一夜之間成為亞洲的主宰。美國在世界各地的盟友會知道，他們不能倚靠美國。美利堅盛世將會崩潰。

To understand how to avoid conflict in the Taiwan Strait, start with the contradictions that have kept the peace during the past few decades. The government in Beijing insists it has a duty to bring about unification—even, as a last resort, by means of invasion. The Taiwanese, who used to agree that their island was part of China (albeit a non-Communist one), have taken to electing governments that stress its separateness, while stopping short of declaring independence. And America has protected Taiwan from Chinese aggression, even though it recognises the government in Beijing. These opposing ideas are bundled into what Fitzgerald’s diplomatic inheritors blithely call the “status quo”. In fact, it is a roiling, seething source of neurosis and doubt.

要了解如何避免台海戰爭，得從維持數十年和平的矛盾著手。 北京政府堅稱，有責任實現統一，即使最後迫不得已武力侵台，也在所不惜。台灣人過去同意此島是中國的一部分（但非共產主義中國），卻選出強調分離的政府，儘管沒有宣布獨立。即使美國承認北京政府，美國也保護台灣免受中國的侵略。這些對立觀念被承襲費茲傑羅外交作風的人士包裹起來，愉快地稱之為「現狀」。實際上，這卻是神經緊繃和懷疑猜忌不斷翻滾、沸騰的根源。

What has changed of late is America’s perception of a tipping-point in China’s cross-strait military build-up, 25 years in the making. The Chinese navy has launched 90 major ships and submarines in the past five years, four to five times as many as America has in the western Pacific. China builds over 100 advanced fighter planes each year; it has deployed space weapons and is bristling with precision missiles that can hit Taiwan, US Navy vessels and American bases in Japan, South Korea and Guam. In the war games that simulate a Chinese attack on Taiwan, America has started to lose.

最近發生改變的是，美國意識到中國25年來海峽的軍力建設出現臨界點。過去五年來，中國海軍編制90艘大型艦艇和潛艇，是美國在西太平洋的四到五倍。中國每年製造超過100架先進戰鬥機，部署太空武器，大批覆蓋可以打到台灣、美國軍艦及在日本、南韓和關島的美軍基地的精密導彈。在模擬中國對台灣進攻的戰爭遊戲中，美國已經開始敗退。

Some American analysts conclude that military superiority will sooner or later tempt China into using force against Taiwan, not as a last resort but because it can. China has talked itself into believing that America wants to keep the Taiwan crisis boiling and may even want a war to contain China’s rise. It has trampled the idea that Hong Kong has a separate system of government, devaluing a similar offer designed to win over the people of Taiwan to peaceful unification. In the South China Sea it has been converting barren reefs into military bases.

部分美國分析師總結，軍事優勢遲早會誘使中國對台灣動武，不是什麼最後手段，而是因為他有能力這麼做。中國說服自己相信美國希望台灣危機沸騰，甚至可能希望透過戰爭來遏制中國崛起​​。它已踐踏容許香港擁有自治政府體制的想法，也貶低類似的一國兩制提議，藉此贏得台灣人民對和平統一的認同。它還將南海貧瘠的島礁，轉變成軍事基地。

Although China has clearly become more authoritarian and nationalistic, this analysis is too pessimistic—perhaps because hostility to China is becoming the default in America. Xi Jinping, China’s president, has not even begun to prepare his people for a war likely to inflict mass casualties and economic pain on all sides. In its 100th year the Communist Party is building its claim to power on prosperity, stability and China’s status in its region and growing role in the world. All that would be jeopardised by an attack whose result, whatever the US Navy says, comes with lots of uncertainty attached, not least over how to govern a rebellious Taiwan. Why would Mr Xi risk it all now, when China could wait until the odds are even better?

儘管中國明顯已變得更加專制和民族主義，但這種分析還是太悲觀。也許是因為對中的敵意在美國已心照不宣。中國國家主席習近平甚至還沒有開始要他的人民做好準備，發動一場可能給各方造成大規模傷亡和經濟痛苦的戰爭。在共產黨成立100周年，強打的是繁榮、穩定和中國在區域及全球愈趨重要的角色，而這一切，都會因一場攻擊而受到危害，無論美國海軍怎麼說，戰爭都帶來許多不確定性，並非只有治理叛離的台灣。若中國可以等到更好的時機，習近平為什麼要現在冒險孤注一擲？

Yet that brings only some comfort. Nobody in America can really know what Mr Xi intends today, let alone what he or his successor may want in the future. China’s impatience is likely to grow. Mr Xi’s appetite for risk may sharpen, especially if he wants unification with Taiwan to crown his legacy.

但這只能帶來一絲安慰。美國沒有人真的知道習近平當今的盤算，遑論他或他的繼任者未來怎麼想。中國的不耐情緒可能會升溫。習近平對風險的偏好可能會驟升，特別是如果他想靠統一台灣，來為自己的政績加冕。

If they are to ensure that war remains too much of a gamble for China, America and Taiwan need to think ahead. Work to re-establish an equilibrium across the Taiwan Strait will take years. Taiwan must start to devote fewer resources to big, expensive weapons systems that are vulnerable to Chinese missiles and more to tactics and technologies that would frustrate an invasion.

若要確保戰爭對中國來說仍是代價太高的豪賭，美國和台灣必須想得更遠。重建台海平衡將耗時數年。台灣必須開始投入較少資源購置大型、昂貴的武器系統，畢竟那面對中國導彈不堪一擊；反之，應投入更多資源，加強反侵略的戰術和技術。

America requires weapons to deter China from launching an amphibious invasion; it must prepare its allies, including Japan and South Korea; and it needs to communicate to China that its battle plans are credible. This will be a tricky balance to strike. Deterrence usually strives to be crystal-clear about retaliation. The message here is more subtle. China must be discouraged from trying to change Taiwan’s status by force even as it is reassured that America will not support a dash for formal independence by Taiwan. The risk of a superpower arms race is high.

美國需要武器來阻止中國發動海陸空入侵，它須與盟友就緒，包括日本和南韓；它需向中國傳達其戰鬥計畫是可信的。要取得平衡，十分棘手。嚇阻，通常要明確表態可能報復。這裡的訊息比較微妙：必須阻止中國試圖以武力改變台灣現狀，同時讓中國放心，美國不支持台灣追求正式獨立的暴衝。超級大國軍備競賽的風險很高。

Be under no illusions how hard it is to sustain ambiguity. Hawks in Washington and Beijing will always be able to portray it as weakness. And yet, seemingly useful shows of support for Taiwan, such as American warships making port calls on the island, could be misread as a dangerous shift in intentions.

保持模稜兩可有多麼難，別抱任何幻想。華府和北京的鷹派總能把它描繪成軟弱。況且，展現對台灣的支持，例如美國軍艦停靠台灣，這麼做看似有用，卻可能被錯誤解讀成美國意圖起了危險的轉變。

Most disputes are best put to rest. Those that can be resolved only in war can often be put off and, as China’s late leader Deng Xiaoping said, left to wiser generations. Nowhere presents such a test of statesmanship as the most dangerous place on Earth. ■

最好擱置大多數爭議。唯有戰爭才能解決的問題，通常都可推遲，正如已故中國領導人鄧小平所說的，留給更明智的後代去解決。沒有別處像這地球上最危險的地方這般，考驗著政治家的風範。 ■